XRP/Tether Market Overview

• XRPUSDT declined 0.64% over the 24-hour period, with price range between $2.476 and $2.5546.
• Volatility increased during the late 15-minute candles, showing a contraction before a potential breakout.
• A bearish divergence appeared on RSI near $2.5300, suggesting potential momentum exhaustion.
• Volume spiked in the early afternoon (ET) as price moved lower, confirming bearish sentiment.
• A bullish Engulfing pattern formed near $2.4958, signaling a potential short-term reversal candidate.

The XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT) pair opened at $2.5242 on 2025-10-31 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.5546, a low of $2.476, and closed at $2.5006 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 128,119,041.80 and total turnover was $320,512,523.52, showing moderate volatility and increased bearish pressure.

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish bias, with XRPUSDT forming multiple bearish candlestick patterns, including a long lower shadow and a bearish engulfing pattern near key support at $2.4958. Price action suggests that sellers have controlled the session, with the 50-period moving average dipping below the 20-period line, signaling bearish momentum. A pullback to the $2.4900–$2.4950 zone may trigger renewed interest if buyers step in.

Bollinger Bands widened during the late morning and narrowed in the afternoon, signaling a potential breakout attempt. Price settled near the middle band at the close, indicating indecision among market participants. RSI showed a bearish divergence near 2.5300, hinting at weakening momentum on the downside. MACD moved below the signal line, confirming the bearish bias. Fibonacci retracements indicate that $2.4950 is a critical level to watch, with a 61.8% retracement from the recent swing high at $2.5546.

Looking ahead, XRPUSDT may find near-term direction from the $2.4900–$2.5050 range, with potential for a short-covering rally if the 2.5000 level holds. However, a break below $2.4900 could accelerate the downtrend toward $2.476. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion or reversal. As always, market conditions can change rapidly, and sudden regulatory or macroeconomic news could shift sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish reversal patterns and bearish momentum indicators, a backtest could be structured using the first confirmed Bullish Engulfing candle as a reversal (exit) signal. This candle formed near $2.4958 during the 15:00–15:15 ET time window. By treating this as the end of a short position or a buy entry, the strategy could be tested for its viability in capturing short-term reversals. The backtesting engine can interpret this as either a long or short strategy, with the P&L calculated accordingly—price declines would represent profits for a short, and rises would be losses. Once confirmed, we will pull the relevant Bullish Engulfing dates, generate a list of signals, and run the back-test from 2022-01-01 to today to evaluate the strategy's historical performance.