XRP/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-23

• XRPUSDT declined sharply from $2.87 to $2.81 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum evident.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at $2.85, indicating strong downward bias.
• Volatility remained compressed in the final 6 hours, with prices consolidating near $2.85–2.86.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term rebound but limited upside.
• Notional turnover spiked at $2.81, signaling increased selling pressure during the breakdown.

XRPUSDT opened at $2.8602 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET and closed at $2.8584 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, registering a low of $2.8066 and a high of $2.8806. The 24-hour notional volume was approximately $152,850,566, while total turnover reached $416,050,566. Price action showed bearish bias after a sharp decline into early overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around $2.81–2.82 and $2.79–2.80 following a breakdown from the $2.85–2.87 consolidation range. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $2.85 on the 15-minute chart, confirming the breakdown. A doji formed near $2.86 late in the session, suggesting indecision. The price failed to retest the intraday high of $2.8806, which now acts as near-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA moved below the 50-EMA, signaling bearish momentum. The 50-EMA at $2.858 and 100-EMA at $2.859 were closely aligned, with price currently below both. On the daily chart, the 50-DMA at $2.87 and 200-DMA at $2.86 are now above current levels, indicating a bearish crossover.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish, with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum slowed. RSI bottomed near 30 in the final hours, hinting at a potential bounce. However, the lack of a strong reversal candle suggests the RSI may be misleading due to compressed volatility.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted near the end of the session, with price sitting close to the lower band at $2.84. The upper band remained static around $2.88, with price failing to break through. A contraction followed by a breakdown may indicate a short-term bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown into the $2.81 range, with a large 15-minute candle at $2.8164 printing 1,351,730.4 XRP. Turnover spiked during this period, confirming the move. Later, volume normalized as price moved sideways, with no clear divergence between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high at $2.8806 to the low at $2.8066 show critical levels at $2.85 (38.2%), $2.83 (50%), and $2.81 (61.8%). Price currently consolidates near the 50% retracement level, a key area to watch for direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The breakdown from the $2.85 consolidation level into the $2.81 range was confirmed by bearish engulfing patterns and high volume. A backtest strategy could target short positions entering on a close below $2.84, with a stop above $2.87 and a target at $2.80. RSI hitting oversold levels and failing to break back above the 50-EMA could serve as additional filters to avoid false breakouts.