XRP's TD Sequential Buy Signal: A Strategic Entry Point Amid a Potential Bullish Reversal

The XRP market has long been a battleground for technical traders, but recent developments suggest a pivotal inflection point. As of August 2025, the TD Sequential indicator—a tool with a proven track record since 2022—has flashed a buy signal at $2.82, signaling the potential end of a 16% correction and the start of a bullish reversalXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2]. This signal, combined with favorable momentum metrics and institutional catalysts, presents a compelling case for strategic entry.

The TD Sequential: A Proven Trend Reversal Tool

Developed by Tom DeMark, the TD Sequential operates through two phases: the setup and countdown. In the setup phase, nine consecutive candles of the same color (bullish or bearish) indicate exhausted momentum. Once this sequence completes, the countdown phase extends the count to thirteen, heightening the probability of a reversalXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2]. For XRP, this indicator has demonstrated remarkable accuracy. In mid-2022, it flagged a buy opportunity post-Terra collapse, catalyzing a 71.89% price surgeXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2]. Conversely, a July 2023 sell signal preceded a 57% declineXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2].

The August 2025 buy signal aligns with historical patterns. After a bearish setup phase (nine red candles), the countdown phase has begun, suggesting a high likelihood of a rebound. If XRP reclaims key resistance levels like $3.30, a 3x move to $9 by Q4 2025 becomes plausibleXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2].

Technical Momentum: RSI, MACD, and Key Levels

As of August 2025, XRP consolidates around $3.00, with technical indicators reinforcing the TD Sequential's signal. The RSI hovers in the mid-50s, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD shows early signs of a bullish crossover as the histogram contractsXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2]. Historically, a MACD Golden Cross strategy—buying on the crossover and holding for 30 trading days—has yielded a 127% cumulative return from 2022 to 2025, with an average winning trade of 26.7% and a 31% annualized gain[^backtest]. However, the strategy carries substantial risk, with a maximum drawdown of -68% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.52[^backtest].

On the daily chart, the 9-day EMA dipping below the 20-day EMA signals a mild bearish bias, but a recovery above $3.00 could reverse this trendXRP Price Technical Analysis: What’s Next After $2.98 Support Test?^[1]. Support is concentrated at $2.975–$2.98, where a large bid wall has absorbed sell pressure. Breaking below $2.95 would trigger a test of deeper support at $2.85 and $2.77XRP Price Technical Analysis: What’s Next After $2.98 Support Test?^[1]. Conversely, a breakout above $3.08—a critical resistance cluster—could propel XRP toward $3.1276 and $3.29XRP Price Technical Analysis: What’s Next After $2.98 Support Test?^[1]. Volume data underscores institutional participation, with a peak of 273 million in turnover as XRP briefly touched $3.05 before sellers capped the moveXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2].

Risk/Reward Analysis: Balancing Optimism and Caution

The TD Sequential buy signal offers a favorable risk/reward profile. A long position near $2.95–$2.98, with a stop-loss below $2.95, targets a 10–15% gain if XRP breaks $3.08. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.95 exposes the position to deeper losses, though the bid wall at $2.98 provides a bufferXRP Price Technical Analysis: What’s Next After $2.98 Support Test?^[1].

Broader catalysts, such as Gemini's XRP-rewards Mastercard and the potential approval of spot XRP ETFs (with 87% odds per analystsXRP Faces $3.04 Resistance as RSI Neutral, MACD Turns^[2]), could amplify bullish momentum. However, macroeconomic volatility and regulatory uncertainty remain tail risks.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on XRP's Resilience

While no indicator is infallible, the TD Sequential's historical accuracy, coupled with neutral-to-bullish momentum and institutional tailwinds, makes the current buy signal a strategic entry point. Traders should pair this with broader market analysis and risk management. If XRP clears $3.08 and reclaims $3.30, the path to $9 becomes increasingly viable. For now, the market watches closely—waiting for the next chapter in XRP's 2025 narrative.