XRP's TD Sequential Buy Signal: A Strategic Entry Point Amid Fading Bearish Momentum

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, but XRP's recent technical and institutional dynamics suggest a pivotal inflection point. As the asset consolidates near critical support levels and institutional demand accelerates, a compelling case emerges for a strategic entry. This analysis synthesizes technical reversal signals, institutional accumulation patterns, and macroeconomic context to evaluate XRP's potential trajectory.

Technical Reversal: TD Sequential and Oversold Conditions

XRP's price action has triggered a TD Sequential buy signal on both 4-hour and weekly charts, forming after nine consecutive bearish candles. This pattern historically signals exhaustion of downward momentum and a high probability of reversal. The current consolidation near $1.90 and $2.00 support levels further strengthens the setup, with a successful defense of $1.90 being critical to validate the bullish case.

Technical indicators corroborate this narrative. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 38.29, indicating an oversold condition, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) at -0.08 suggests lingering bearish momentum. However, conflicting data from other sources-such as an RSI of 59.006 and a MACD buy signal-highlight the need for contextual interpretation. The divergence underscores a market in transition, where short-term bearish pressure may soon yield to structural buying.

Institutional Accumulation: ETFs and Supply Dynamics

Institutional demand for XRP has surged in 2025, with U.S.-listed XRP ETFs recording net inflows exceeding $1.07 billion since mid-2025. Major players like Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares have collectively absorbed nearly 1% of XRP's circulating supply. These inflows, however, have not yet translated into price surges due to the custodial nature of ETF holdings, which lock assets and reduce immediate liquidity.

On-chain data reveals a tug-of-war between ETF accumulation and whale selling. Large holders have strategically distributed XRP on exchanges like Binance, creating visible selling pressure. Despite this, exchange balances have fallen from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion tokens over 60 days, signaling a tightening of liquid supply. This structural shift suggests that ETF-driven demand is gradually offsetting whale-driven selling, creating a foundation for potential stabilization.

Market Dynamics: Bearish Momentum vs. Structural Demand

XRP's price has declined 45% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66 to around $1.90, mirroring broader crypto market weakness. Bitcoin and Ethereum's declines have exacerbated XRP's underperformance, though ETF inflows have provided a floor. The asset's market capitalization now reflects 37% of holders in unrealized losses, but this also implies a high potential for rebalancing once bearish momentum wanes.

Ripple's regulatory progress and network developments add a layer of fundamental resilience. The firm's SEC settlement in August 2025 removed legal uncertainty, while its RLUSD stablecoin and XRP Ledger's integration with Mastercard highlight growing utility. These factors, though not immediately price-driving, reinforce XRP's long-term value proposition.

Future Outlook: Scenarios and Strategic Implications

Analysts project three potential paths for XRP in 2026. A bullish scenario assumes sustained ETF inflows reverse the 45% decline, pushing XRP toward $3.66. A base-case scenario envisions consolidation between $2.00–$2.30 as ETF demand moderates. The bearish case warns of further declines to $1.50 if whale selling accelerates or ETF inflows stall.

For investors, the TD Sequential buy signal and institutional accumulation present a strategic entry point. The key risks-whale selling and macroeconomic headwinds-must be mitigated by monitoring ETF inflow velocity and on-chain activity. A breakout above $2.00 could trigger a retest of the $2.40 channel target, while a breakdown below $1.90 would invalidate the bullish case.

Conclusion

XRP's confluence of technical reversal signals and institutional demand creates a compelling narrative for a near-term entry. While bearish momentum persists, the structural tightening of supply and ETF-driven absorption suggest a high probability of stabilization. Investors should balance the TD Sequential setup with real-time on-chain data and macroeconomic cues to navigate this inflection point effectively.