XRP Surges 370% Post-Elections, Faces Bearish Pressure

XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple, has seen a remarkable surge of 370% since the U.S. Presidential Elections. However, recent on-chain signals and price action suggest that the altcoin’s price rally might be nearing its end. The daily chart for XRP reveals a bearish price structure, with the altcoin slipping below the $2.19-level a week ago. Despite rebounding to test the $2.45-level as resistance, the rejection at this level highlights the bearish pressure on the coin.

The 50% retracement level of the move from $2.99 to $1.9 coincided with the $2.45 resistance, indicating that sellers have had the upper hand despite the significant gains. The net unrealized profit/loss metric for XRP shows similarities to April 2021, which could be a concerning sign for bulls. This metric, which measures the difference between unrealized profits and unrealized losses among long-term holders, has been hovering just above the 0.75-level. In the summer of 2021, this metric rose above 0.75 and marked the cycle top for XRP. Similarly, in 2017, the metric surged beyond 0.9 and stayed there for weeks, indicating a much younger asset at the time.

Despite the bearish signals, there are some positive indicators for XRP investors. Data from Santiment shows that the total supply in profit has been falling alongside the price since January, but it remains significantly higher than levels seen in October and November 2024. The weighted sentiment, which tracks social media engagement related to XRP, has been negative over the past three months, with only a few spikes of positive engagement. However, the daily active addresses shot up in March, indicating increased network activity and potential demand. The transaction volume trends have remained similar to the preceding three months, suggesting sustained interest in the altcoin.

The long-term holder net unrealized profit-loss (LTH NUPL) metric highlights euphoria and greed in the market. Over the past few months, the metric has been hovering just above the 0.75-level, indicating that 75% of the market capitalization is in profit. This metric measures the difference between unrealized profits and unrealized losses among holders whose tokens are at least 155 days old. Positive values imply that investors are, on average, profitable. Given the similarities to the 2021 cycle top, investors should consider partially cashing out their holdings in case the market begins to turn and sustains a downtrend for the next two years.