XRP's SOPR Signals a Near-Term Rebound: A Case for Optimism in a Capitulating Market

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of extremes-volatility, fear, and, when the dust settles, opportunity. Nowhere is this cycle more evident than in XRP's recent on-chain behavior. As the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for XRP plummeted to 0.95 in October 2025, its lowest level in six months, the asset appears to be at a critical inflection point[Here's the Next XRP Target as XRP SOPR Drops to a 6-Month Low of 0.95]^[1]. This metric, which measures whether addresses are selling XRP at a profit or loss, has historically signaled capitulation and subsequent rebounds. For investors, this is a moment to dissect the data, not panic.

SOPR as a Canaries in the Coal Mine

SOPR values below 1.0 indicate that holders are, on average, selling their XRP at a loss-a clear sign of distress. In April 2025, when SOPR hit 0.92, XRP staged a 35% rally within a month, surging from $1.90 to $2.58[XRP SOPR Declines to $0.95: Market Eyes $3 Target for Next Move]^[2]. The October 2025 drop to 0.95 mirrors this pattern, suggesting a similar rebound could be on the horizon. Analysts like Xaif Crypto have highlighted this as a "capitulation event," where the most vulnerable holders exit their positions, clearing the way for a potential short-covering rally[Peter Brandt Flips Bullish on XRP After Major Market Shift]^[3].

The mechanics are straightforward: when SOPR hits these lows, it reflects a market bottoming out. Sellers lose their urgency, and buyers-often institutional or algorithmic-step in to accumulate at discounted prices. This dynamic isn't unique to XRP but is amplified here by its unique on-chain structure and regulatory clarity, which we'll explore later.

Peter Brandt's Bullish Flip: A Structural Argument

Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt recently shifted to a bullish stance on XRP, calling its chart structure "purer" than many of its peers[A 35% XRP Price Rally? One Metric Says ^[4]. His analysis identifies key support levels around $2.38 and resistance at $3.10–$3.35, aligning with the SOPR-driven price targets mentioned earlier[Chart Whisperer Says XRP Shows A 'Purer' Market Structure]^[5]. Brandt's focus on long-term fundamentals-such as XRP's role in cross-border payments and its growing institutional adoption-adds a layer of conviction to the on-chain signals.

For example, XRP's recent integration with major payment processors and its reduced regulatory uncertainty (thanks to the SEC's final ruling in late 2024) create a tailwind that could amplify a SOPR-driven rebound[Chart Whisperer Says XRP Shows A 'Purer' Market Structure]^[5]. This isn't just a technical bounce; it's a confluence of structural and sentiment-driven forces.

The Contrarian Caution: Long-Term Holder Activity

While SOPR paints an optimistic picture, one must also consider the counterpoint: long-term holders (LTHs) have been quietly reducing their positions[A 35% XRP Price Rally? One Metric Says ^[4]. This could delay or moderate the rebound, as LTHs often act as a stabilizing force. However, the timing of these sales-coinciding with SOPR's capitulation-suggests they're part of a broader profit-taking cycle rather than a bearish signal. In other words, LTHs might be locking in gains ahead of a potential rally, not fleeing the asset.

The Path Forward: A 35% Rally to $3.10–$3.35?

If history repeats, XRP could see a 35% rebound from its recent low of $2.38 to $3.10–$3.35. This would align with both SOPR patterns and Brandt's technical analysis[XRP SOPR Declines to $0.95: Market Eyes $3 Target for Next Move]^[2][Chart Whisperer Says XRP Shows A 'Purer' Market Structure]^[5]. However, investors should remain cautious. The broader crypto market remains fragile, and macroeconomic factors-such as Fed policy and equity market performance-could influence XRP's trajectory.

For those with a medium-term horizon, the current SOPR level represents a high-probability entry point. The key is to monitor on-chain activity for confirmation: a sustained SOPR rebound above 1.0, coupled with increased volume and rising inflows to exchanges, would signal the start of a new bullish phase.

Conclusion

XRP's SOPR decline to 0.95 is not just a number-it's a narrative of capitulation and potential rebirth. While the path to $3.10 isn't without risks, the confluence of historical patterns, technical analysis, and structural tailwinds makes a compelling case for optimism. As always, the market rewards those who do their homework and act decisively when the odds are in their favor.