XRP's Short-Term Bear Case: Is $1 the Next Destination?

The XRP market is at a critical juncture, with technical and on-chain indicators painting a starkly bearish picture for the near term. While institutional demand via ETF inflows has injected liquidity, it remains unclear whether this will offset the relentless selling pressure from large holders and structural weaknesses in the token's price action. This analysis examines the convergence of Peter Brandt's double-top pattern, Ali Martinez's sub-$1.77 warning, and on-chain dynamics to assess the likelihood of XRP breaching the $1 psychological threshold.

Technical Breakdown: The Double-Top Pattern and Neckline Failure

Peter Brandt, a veteran trader known for his commodity and crypto charts, has identified a classic double-top pattern on XRP's weekly chart. The pattern, formed by two distinct peaks near $2.00 this year, is a bearish reversal signal that gains strength when the price breaks below the neckline support. According to Brandt, this critical level currently resides between $1.80 and $2.00. A sustained close below this range would confirm the pattern and project a potential decline to $0.40, using the standard measured move from the neckline.

Recent price action has aligned with this bearish scenario. XRP's failure to reclaim the $2.20–$3.65 range-despite multiple attempts-has eroded bullish momentum. The flattening of weekly moving averages and an RSI near 33 (oversold territory) further underscore weakening demand. While some analysts argue that a rebound is possible if the RSI rebounds, the broader context of whale selling and declining active addresses suggests the pattern is more likely to hold.

On-Chain Pressures: Whale Selling and Fading Active Addresses

Ali Martinez, a prominent crypto analyst, has sounded the alarm on XRP's structural fragility. His analysis highlights a "death cross" in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and a sharp decline in active addresses, signaling capitulation among holders. Martinez warns that a breach of the $1.92 support level could trigger a cascade to $1.73 or even $1.50.

On-chain data corroborates this bearish narrative. Over 1.18 billion XRP tokens have been offloaded by large holders in recent weeks, with significant volumes moving to exchanges like Binance. Whale activity is concentrated in wallets holding 100,000 to 1 million XRP and beyond, indicating preparation for distribution. Meanwhile, active XRP addresses have plummeted to a monthly low of 34,050, reflecting waning retail and institutional participation. This decline in network activity often precedes prolonged bear markets, as seen in previous cycles.

ETF Inflows vs. Liquidity Absorption: A Tenuous Balance

Despite the bearish technical and on-chain signals, XRP ETFs have injected $1.1 billion in inflows since November 2025, offering a counterweight to selling pressure. However, this liquidity has been insufficient to offset the overwhelming supply from whale distributions. For instance, while ETFs absorbed $230.74 million in a single week, XRP's price remained trapped in a 1.87–1.94 dollar range, failing to break above $1.95.

The order book depth for XRP has also deteriorated, with derivatives markets showing a pronounced sell-side bias. Taker buy volume has collapsed from $5.8 billion in summer 2025 to just $250 million by late Q4, indicating a lack of buyers to absorb large sell orders. This fragility is compounded by a descending channel and a bearish death cross on key moving averages, which suggest further downside is likely unless institutional demand accelerates.

Weighing the Risks: $1 as a Probable Target

The confluence of technical breakdowns, whale selling, and fading active addresses creates a compelling case for XRP to test the $1 level. Brandt's double-top projection to $0.40 is an extreme scenario, but a more realistic target appears to be $1, given the ETF-driven floor and the token's historical resilience in payment ecosystems. However, this outcome hinges on two critical factors:
1. Whale Activity: If large holders continue offloading XRP onto exchanges, the downward trajectory will persist.
2. ETF Momentum: Sustained inflows above $200 million per week could stabilize the price, but current trends suggest this threshold is unlikely to be maintained.

Conclusion: Urgent Caution for Investors

While XRP's long-term prospects remain tied to its adoption in cross-border payments and institutional infrastructure, the short-term outlook is dire. The double-top pattern's confirmation, coupled with on-chain selling pressure, creates a high-probability scenario for a test of $1. Investors should closely monitor the $1.80–$2.00 neckline and whale transaction volumes for signs of capitulation or a potential rebound. For now, the bear case dominates, and prudence is warranted.