XRP's Rare Bullish RSI Divergence and Implications for a Potential Market Reversal

The XRP market in late November 2025 has become a focal point for traders and analysts due to the emergence of a rare bullish RSI divergence, a pattern historically associated with significant price recoveries. This divergence, coupled with on-chain data confirming accumulation at key support levels, suggests a high-probability entry point for investors seeking to capitalize on a potential reversal. Below, we dissect the technical and on-chain signals shaping this scenario.

Bullish RSI Divergence: A Historical Precursor to Rallies

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP has formed a strong bullish divergence on the weekly chart, with the 3-day RSI dropping to 39-a level last seen in November 2024, which preceded a 580% rally from $0.50 to $3.40. This divergence occurs when price forms lower lows while the RSI forms higher lows, signaling weakening bearish momentum. On the 12-hour chart, a similar pattern has emerged, with RSI forming higher lows during a price consolidation near $1.90.

Historical parallels reinforce the significance of this setup. According to analysis, in April and June 2025, similar RSI divergences preceded major rallies, suggesting a recurring pattern of institutional accumulation during oversold conditions. Additionally, the Stochastic RSI and Ultimate Oscillator have reached oversold thresholds, with the latter falling below 20, a level often linked to reduced selling pressure.

On-Chain Support Strength at $0.52 and $1.90

On-chain data provides further validation for these key levels. At $0.52, XRP has shown signs, of institutional accumulation, with long-term holder selling dropping by 39% between December 11 and 18, 2025. This level aligns with historical support zones from 2017 and 2021, where XRP's price rebounded after extended declines. Meanwhile, $1.90 has emerged as a critical consolidation zone, with XRP ETFs recording consistent inflows and a descending triangle pattern forming.

The XRP Ledger's activity also underscores this support. Daily transactions surged to 2.14 million in Q1 2025, with a single day hitting 5 million transactions. Despite a recent dip in active addresses to 20,000 in early December, the network's utility remains robust, particularly in AccountSet and AMM Bid transactions, which suggest structured onboarding by institutional actors.

High-Probability Entry Points and Risk Management

For traders, the $1.90–$1.96 range represents a high-probability entry point. This zone coincides with a descending triangle target and a key supply cluster where heavy accumulation occurred in 2024. A clean close above $1.96 would confirm the reversal, potentially propelling XRP toward $2.06 and $2.21. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.90 could trigger a test of the $0.52 support level, where further accumulation is likely.

Risk management remains critical. While the RSI divergence and on-chain metrics are bullish, bearish signals persist. The MACD has turned bearish, and XRP remains below the 200-week moving average. Traders should monitor the $1.96–$1.97 supply zone closely, as a failure to break this level could prolong the consolidation phase.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Technical and On-Chain Signals

The current XRP market setup reflects a rare alignment of technical and on-chain indicators. The RSI divergence at historically significant oversold levels, combined with on-chain accumulation at $0.52 and $1.90, suggests a potential reversal is imminent. However, the path to a sustained rally depends on clearing key resistance zones and maintaining institutional buying pressure. For investors, this confluence of signals presents a compelling case to position for a rebound, provided they remain vigilant to evolving market dynamics.