Is XRP’s Price Recovery Sustainable Amid a 70% Drop in Payments Activity?

The XRP ecosystem is at a crossroads. While technical indicators suggest a potential breakout above $2.91, the token’s fundamentals tell a different story: a 70% collapse in payments activity since early August 2025, with daily transactions plummeting from 750,000 to just 221,000 by September 8 [1]. This stark divergence between price action and on-chain utility raises a critical question: Can XRP’s recent price resilience persist without meaningful real-world adoption?

Technical Optimism: A Fragile Foundation

XRP’s price has shown surprising resilience, trading near $2.87 despite the utility decline. Analysts point to a symmetrical triangle pattern, projecting a potential 25% price swing as the token tests key resistance levels [3]. Institutional tailwinds, such as the launch of XRP futures on the CME (which generated $86.6 million in trading volume in their first week) and Hyperscale Data’s $10 million investment in a blockchain-based lending platform, have further fueled optimism [4].

However, these developments mask a deeper issue: XRP’s transaction volume has become increasingly decoupled from its price. For instance, trading volumes spiked 200% in a 24-hour period in late August, driven by speculative activity rather than organic demand [1]. This suggests that XRP’s price movements are increasingly driven by market sentiment and institutional speculation rather than its core use case as a cross-border payment solution.

Fundamental Decline: A Utility Crisis

XRP’s primary value proposition—fast, low-cost cross-border payments—has been eroded by declining on-chain activity. The 70% drop in payments volume coincides with reduced remittance activity and a shift toward alternative solutions like Remittix (RTX), which has demonstrated explosive user growth and real-world adoption in 2025 [1]. While Ripple’s partnership with financial institutions remains intact, the lack of retail traction and retail user growth highlights a critical gap in XRP’s utility.

Data from XRP Ledger metrics underscores this trend: daily transactions have fallen to levels not seen since 2023, even as the SEC’s reclassification of XRP as a commodity in 2024 removed regulatory uncertainty [4]. This disconnect suggests that XRP’s institutional appeal may not be enough to offset its waning relevance in the broader payments landscape.

The Speculative Bubble Risk

The surge in trading volumes—spiking 200% in a single day—reflects a growing reliance on speculative trading rather than fundamental demand [2]. While this could drive short-term price gains, it also amplifies the risk of a correction. Historical precedents show that assets with weak on-chain metrics and speculative-driven price action often experience sharp reversals when market conditions shift.

Moreover, XRP’s expanding institutional utility, such as its use in Hyperscale Data’s lending platform, remains niche compared to its broader market capitalization. Without a clear path to scaling real-world adoption, these initiatives may fail to offset the broader decline in payments activity.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

XRP’s price recovery hinges on a precarious balance between technical optimism and fundamental decline. While institutional interest and speculative trading provide short-term tailwinds, the token’s long-term sustainability depends on restoring its core utility as a payment solution. The absence of robust on-chain activity raises concerns that XRP is increasingly becoming a speculative asset, vulnerable to market volatility and shifting investor sentiment.

For investors, the key takeaway is clear: XRP’s price resilience may persist in the near term, but without a reversal in its utility decline, the token risks becoming a cautionary tale of speculative-driven growth.

Source:
[1] XRP Plummets 70% in Payments Number: No One Needs It? [https://www.tradingview.com/news/u_today:d762dcfe3094b:0-xrp-plummets-70-in-payments-number-no-one-needs-it/]
[2] XRP - Ripple Volumes Explode By 200% – Next Stop $5? [https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/xrp-price-news-ripple-volumes-explode-by-200-next-stop-5-1546216]
[3] XRP Analyst Sees Symmetrical Triangle Setup Signaling 25% Price Move [https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/xrp-price-prediction-xrp-analyst-sees-symmetrical-triangle-setup-signaling-25-price-move]
[4] Institutional Interest in XRP Grows with Hyperscale Lending Platform and CME Futures [https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0ffea-institutional-interest-in-xrp-grows-with-hyperscale-lending-platform-and-cme-futures]