XRP Price Outlook: Why Rallies Toward $1 May Attract Sellers

The XRP price narrative in late 2025 has been defined by a tug-of-war between bullish catalysts and entrenched bearish sentiment. While regulatory clarity and ETF adoption have injected optimism, the asset's technical and on-chain dynamics suggest that rallies toward the $1 level may trigger renewed selling pressure. This analysis unpacks the interplay of market behavior, profit-taking patterns, and structural resistance that could shape XRP's near-term trajectory.

The $1.80–$1.90 Range: A Battleground for Bulls and Bears

XRP's price action in late 2025 has been anchored by the $1.80–$1.90 range, a critical juncture where historical support and resistance converge. According to a report, the asset has formed a bearish regression channel after retreating from its July 2025 peak of $3.67 to $1.86 by December 2025, with the $1.88 level acting as a repeated floor. This zone has also seen dense resistance between $1.95–$2.00, where multiple breakout attempts have failed, signaling a lack of conviction among buyers.

The significance of this range is amplified by on-chain metrics. As noted by , XRP balances on centralized exchanges plummeted to 1.5 billion tokens by late December 2025, driven by institutional demand for newly approved US-based spot XRP ETFs. While this suggests reduced short-term liquidity, it also highlights a shift in ownership toward long-term holders, who may be less inclined to sell during minor price fluctuations. However, technical indicators like the RSI and Open Interest tell a different story. The RSI has shown oversold conditions, but a negative divergence-where the indicator fails to rise despite higher price lows-suggests weakening buying momentum. Meanwhile, Open Interest on platforms like Binance has fallen to 2024 levels, reflecting a loss of confidence in leveraged positions and a broader bearish sentiment.

Profit-Taking and Seller Distribution: A Double-Edged Sword

The $1.80–$1.90 range has also become a focal point for profit-taking and distribution dynamics. Historical data reveals that XRP's 580% rally from $0.50–$0.60 to $3.40 in early 2025 was followed by a 48% pullback to $1.88 by late December 2025. This pattern underscores a recurring theme: sharp rallies are often met with aggressive profit-taking, particularly when the price approaches key psychological thresholds like $1.

Institutional activity further complicates the picture. Interactive Crypto reports that hedge funds have been short-selling XRP, capitalizing on its volatility and exacerbating downward pressure. This aligns with broader market trends, as XRP's market cap shed $98 billion from its July 2025 peak, reflecting a 46% decline in total value. Such losses have likely incentivized short-term sellers to lock in gains during any rally toward $1, even if the move is driven by ETF inflows or macroeconomic optimism.

Regulatory Optimism vs. Structural Weakness

Despite the bearish technicals, regulatory developments have introduced a counterweight. The approval of spot XRP ETFs in late 2025 brought in $1.1–$1.25 billion in net inflows, yet the price continued to slide, indicating that ETF demand alone is insufficient to offset broader selling pressure. Analysts like Zach Rector argue that while a drop to $1 is unlikely under normal conditions, a sustained breakdown below $1.88 could see XRP retest the $1.62–$1.25 range. This scenario hinges on whether sellers view the $1 level as a target for distribution or a psychological floor worth defending.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

XRP's price outlook near $1 is a study in contrasts. On one hand, regulatory tailwinds and reduced exchange balances hint at a more stable foundation. On the other, technical indicators, institutional shorting, and historical profit-taking patterns suggest that rallies toward $1 may attract sellers rather than buyers. For bulls to reclaim momentum, XRP must not only hold above $1.80 but also convert former resistance into support-a feat that will require a surge in buying interest and a shift in market sentiment. Until then, the $1.80–$1.90 range will remain a critical battleground, where every tick could determine whether XRP enters a new bullish phase or succumbs to a deeper correction.