Is XRP Poised to Follow Zcash's $10-Plus Rally? Decoding the Catalysts and Technical Setup

The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is a theater of contrasts, where macroeconomic headwinds clash with on-chain optimism. Two tokens-XRP and Zcash (ZEC)-have emerged as focal points of this tension. While Zcash has surged over 700% in October 2025, hitting a seven-year high of $420, Bitget reports, XRP has faced a 6.2% weekly decline amid broader market jitters, Fool notes. Yet, both assets are now at inflection points, with XRP's potential ETF approval and Zcash's privacy-driven adoption sparking debates about their trajectories. This article dissects the macroeconomic and on-chain signals to determine whether XRP can replicate Zcash's meteoric rise.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Diverging Paths

The macroeconomic backdrop for XRP and Zcash reveals divergent narratives. XRP's recent slump is tied to broader market pessimism. A surge in U.S. private-sector layoffs and declining consumer confidence have amplified risk-off sentiment, dragging down cryptocurrencies, Fool reports. Additionally, concerns about a valuation bubble in AI stocks and crypto have created a toxic mix for speculative assets, Fool notes. However, a critical catalyst looms: the potential approval of spot XRP ETFs on November 13, 2025, Fool suggests. If regulators greenlight these products, XRP could see a flood of institutional and retail capital, mirroring Bitcoin's ETF-driven rally in 2024.

Zcash, meanwhile, has thrived on a different narrative. Its recent surge to $690, LiveBitcoinNews reports, was fueled by renewed interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, particularly as global regulators debate stricter crypto compliance rules. Zcash's adoption of shielded transactions via the Zashi wallet, LiveBitcoinNews notes, has attracted users seeking anonymity, while high-profile endorsements from figures like Arthur Hayes, LiveBitcoinNews notes, and the launch of a Grayscale Zcash ETF, LiveBitcoinNews reports, have further stoked demand. Unlike XRP, Zcash's rally is less dependent on macroeconomic cycles and more rooted in its niche utility.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation vs. Liquidity

On-chain data paints a nuanced picture. XRP is in a phase of "slow accumulation," with its price consolidating between $2.3 and $2.50 after hitting a July high of $3.54, FinanceFeeds reports. This range-bound behavior suggests long-term holders are building positions ahead of potential ETF-driven demand. Meanwhile, Zcash's on-chain activity has exploded: its transaction volume exceeded $1.8 billion in a single week, LiveBitcoinNews reports, and 30% of its total supply is now held in shielded pools, Bitget notes. This surge in liquidity and privacy-centric usage underscores Zcash's transition from a niche asset to a mainstream DeFi tool.

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio-a metric comparing market cap to on-chain transaction volume-further differentiates the two. XRP's NVT ratio hit a two-month high in Q3 2025, BraveNewCoin reports, signaling potential overvaluation as price growth outpaces network activity. Conversely, Zcash's NVT remains unmentioned in recent reports, CoinDesk notes, but its 150% quarter-over-quarter increase in on-chain transactions, Bitget notes, suggests a healthier alignment between price and utility.

Technical Setup: Patterns and Projections

Technically, XRP is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, a continuation setup that could drive a 25% move either way, BraveNewCoin notes. A breakout above $2.50 might target $3.50, while a breakdown could push it toward $2.10. Meanwhile, Zcash's bullish flag pattern, Wral notes, a precursor to its 2017–2018 rally, hints at a potential surge toward $1,500, LiveBitcoinNews reports. Analysts like Mikybull draw parallels between the two, suggesting XRP could follow Zcash's trajectory if ETF approvals materialize, CryptoBasic reports.

Institutional interest further tilts the scales. Ripple's $500 million funding raise at a $40 billion valuation, FinanceFeeds reports, has boosted XRP's institutional profile, while Zcash's integration with Solana's DeFi ecosystem via Zenrock's wrapped ZEC, CoinDesk notes, highlights its innovation edge.

Conclusion: A Tale of Two Catalysts

XRP and Zcash represent two distinct paths in the crypto landscape. Zcash's rally is driven by privacy demand and product innovation, while XRP's future hinges on regulatory milestones. The NVT ratio and on-chain metrics suggest Zcash is currently more fundamentally sound, but XRP's ETF potential could create a short-term parabolic move. Investors should monitor the November 13 ETF deadline for XRP and Zcash's sustained adoption in DeFi. In a market where macroeconomic winds shift rapidly, both tokens offer compelling-but divergent-opportunities.