Is XRP Poised for a $5+ Move in This Bull Cycle?

XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), has long been a subject of debate in the crypto market. As of October 2025, the token is trading around $2.65, stabilizing above the critical $2.60 support level, which aligns with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) according to a Coinotag analysis. This level has become a psychological and technical linchpin for bulls, as a sustained break below it could reignite bearish sentiment. However, recent data suggests that XRP is accumulating institutional and technical momentum that could propel it toward $5+ in this bull cycle.

Technical Catalysts: A Breakout on the Horizon

XRP's price action has shown signs of consolidation, with rising 24-hour trading volume hitting $5.42 billion-a potential indicator of institutional buying interest, as noted in that Coinotag analysis. The token is currently forming a descending channel pattern, and a breakout above the $2.75 resistance level could trigger a bullish momentum shift. Analysts have identified key price targets at $3.00, $3.37, $4.00, and eventually $5.00 if this breakout materializes, according to the same Coinotag analysis.

Technical indicators further reinforce this narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown bullish divergence, with the oscillator forming higher lows despite price consolidation, signaling growing buyer interest, as reported in a Coinotag piece on Larsen's sales. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is poised to confirm upward momentum if XRP surges past the 20-day EMA at $2.55, a point highlighted in that Coinotag piece. This would validate a potential bullish crossover, adding to the case for a $5+ move.

However, XRP faces headwinds. Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen's ongoing profit-taking has driven a 34% decline from the July high of $3.66, an impact detailed in the Coinotag piece. Yet, sustained volume above $2.60 could mitigate further downside risks, as seen in recent weeks.

Institutional Catalysts: ETFs, RWAs, and Regulatory Momentum

Beyond technicals, institutional catalysts are accelerating XRP's path to $5+. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF, the first U.S.-listed product to provide spot exposure to XRP, has surpassed $100 million in assets under management within six weeks of its launch, according to a Cointribune article. The article notes the ETF holds 59.38% of its portfolio directly in XRP, signaling robust institutional confidence. Its rapid growth outpaces international counterparts like Brazil's Hashdex XRP ETF, which manages only $52 million, as Coinotag coverage observed.

Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger has shattered records in Q3 2025, achieving a Real-World Asset (RWA) market capitalization of $364.2 million-a 215% quarter-over-quarter increase, per a Coinpaper report. This growth is driven by tokenized assets such as Ondo's U.S. Treasury fund and Guggenheim's Digital Commercial Paper, showcasing the XRPL's appeal for institutional-grade tokenization, as the Coinpaper report details.

Derivatives markets also reflect strong institutional participation. CME Group's XRP futures, launched in May 2025, have seen $27 billion in notional volume and $1 billion in open interest, outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum in growth velocity, according to a Bitget report. That Bitget report attributes the surge to a shift toward regulated crypto markets, as offshore volatility pushes capital into transparent, compliant environments.

Regulatory Hurdles and the Road to ETF Approval

The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the SEC's approval of additional XRP ETFs, but the probability of approval by late 2025 remains at 99%, according to a Coinpedia report. Major firms like Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise are awaiting decisions, and once the government reopens, the SEC is expected to process applications within four weeks, the Coinpedia report adds. This regulatory clarity could unlock a flood of institutional capital into XRP, further fueling its ascent.

Risks and Challenges

While the case for a $5+ move is compelling, risks persist. Chris Larsen's continued sales and potential regulatory delays could pressure the token. Additionally, if XRP fails to hold above $2.60, it may test lower support levels at $2.22, $1.90, and $1.61, according to The Economic Times. However, the combination of technical strength, institutional adoption, and regulatory progress suggests that these risks are manageable.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Catalysts

XRP's path to $5+ hinges on a perfect storm of technical and institutional factors. A breakout above $2.75, coupled with ETF-driven demand and RWA adoption, could catalyze a multi-stage rally. While challenges remain, the current landscape-marked by rising volume, bullish indicators, and institutional confidence-positions XRP as a strong contender for a significant move in this bull cycle.