Why XRP is Poised for a 200%+ Surge: Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Analysis Confirm Wave 5 Momentum

The XRP price has entered a pivotal phase in its technical structure, with a confluence of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis suggesting a high-probability continuation of the bullish trend. After a recent breakdown below critical support levels, market participants are now scrutinizing whether this represents a temporary correction or the final setup for a multi-fold rally.

Elliott Wave: Wave 5 Momentum on the Horizon

According to a report by , the XRP price has completed its corrective Wave 4, which retraced to the 70.2% Fibonacci level and concluded its C wave at $1.88, confirming a structural bottom for the monthly chart. Analysts, including Dark Defender, argue that the market is now primed to enter Wave 5-the final impulse wave in the Elliott Wave framework. This phase typically drives prices to new highs, with historical patterns suggesting a potential target of $5.85, representing a 200% surge from current levels.

Further reinforcing this view, Mitrade highlights that the magnitude of Wave 5 could extend even further, with a 391% increase translating to a price target of approximately $15, based on the performance of prior impulse waves. Such a scenario would mirror Bitcoin's recent trajectory, where Wave 3 breakouts within larger structures catalyzed exponential gains.

Fibonacci Convergence and Key Resistance Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels add another layer of confirmation. The $1.88 level, now acting as a confirmed support, aligns with the 70.2% retracement of the preceding downtrend. If Wave 5 materializes, the next major resistance lies at $2.62, where the 4H chart's symmetrical triangle pattern intersects with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A breakout above this level would invalidate bearish scenarios and validate the continuation of the bullish case.

Notably, the $2.00 psychological level has shown surprising resilience, with institutional demand replacing retail panic selling. This structural support, reinforced by ETF inflows and on-chain accumulation, could serve as a springboard for Wave 5 if buyers reassert control.

Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment

While momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD currently remain bearish-RSI below 50 and MACD negative-these metrics often diverge during the final stages of a Wave 5 setup. The recent 246% surge in trading volume during the breakdown below $1.93 suggests significant participation from larger market players, hinting at strategic repositioning rather than capitulation.

However, caution is warranted. A breach below $2.31, as highlighted by , could invalidate the bullish case and trigger a deeper correction. Traders are advised to monitor this level closely, as it represents a critical inflection point between trend continuation and reversal.

Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows: A Catalyst for Rebound

Despite the bearish technicals, XRP has shown unexpected resilience at the $2.00 level, with institutional demand stepping in to counter retail selling. This dynamic is further amplified by ETF inflows, which have driven on-chain accumulation metrics to multi-month highs. Such structural strength suggests that even if the price tests lower levels, the underlying demand could prevent a prolonged bearish spiral.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Setup for Wave 5

The convergence of Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, and institutional factors paints a compelling case for XRP's potential 200%+ surge. While the immediate risk of a breakdown remains, the completion of Wave 4 and the alignment of key resistance levels create a high-probability scenario for a bullish continuation. Investors should closely watch the $2.31 invalidation point and the $2.62 triangle breakout level, as these will determine whether Wave 5 gains momentum or the market enters a prolonged consolidation phase.

In a market where technical structures often dictate price action, XRP's current setup offers both risk and reward-a classic example of how trend continuation can unlock exponential gains for those who recognize the signals early.