XRP's Path to Breaking the $3 Resistance Amid Declining Network Activity

The On-Chain Dilemma: Valuation vs. Utility

XRP's journey toward the $3.10–$3.13 resistance level in September 2025 is marked by a paradox. While market-level trading volumes have surged—spiking 240% month-over-month and reaching $16 billion in daily activityXRP Hits Record-Breaking Accumulation Phase in 2025^[4]—underlying on-chain metrics tell a different story. Daily XRP Ledger transactions have declined by 37.06%, and new wallet creation has plummeted by 40.28%XRP Trading Volume Hits $16B While On-Chain Metrics Tumble^[5]. This divergence suggests a growing disconnect between speculative fervor and the network's foundational utility.

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, a critical on-chain metric, has become a focal point. In November 2024, the NVT ratio spiked to 1,162, reflecting $44 million in daily transaction trafficXRP Ledger Activity Surges With NVT Ratio Spike and $44M^[3]. However, by September 2025, the ratio surged again to 168—a 441% increase in 24 hoursXRP $2.81 Support Could Be Tested After 441% NVT Spike and Continued Sell Side Pressure^[2]. Historically, such sharp spikes in NVT correlate with overvaluation, as market capitalization outpaces transaction volume. This pattern raises concerns about the sustainability of XRP's current price trajectory.

Accumulation vs. Real-World Adoption

Investor behavior further complicates the narrative. Over the past month, XRP has seen a record-breaking accumulation phase, with 1.7 million tokens added to long-term holdings—the largest such spike since early 2023XRP Hits Record-Breaking Accumulation Phase in 2025^[4]. This accumulation, coupled with a 240% surge in daily trading volumes, indicates strong institutional and retail interest. Yet, the lack of corresponding growth in on-chain activity suggests that much of this demand is speculative rather than driven by real-world usage.

For instance, while the XRP network processed $2.1 billion in transactions on August 1, 2025XRP $2.81 Support Could Be Tested After 441% NVT Spike and Continued Sell Side Pressure^[2], this activity was largely attributed to a 1.12 billion token circulation metric, signaling organic growth. However, subsequent months saw a decline in transaction throughput, with daily on-chain transactions dropping below $44 millionXRP Ledger Activity Surges With NVT Ratio Spike and $44M^[3]. This trend implies that the network's role as a cross-border payment solution—XRP's core value proposition—has not yet scaled to match its speculative appeal.

Technical Resistance and Sentimental Crossroads

From a technical perspective, XRP faces a critical juncture. Analysts argue that a breakout above $3.13 could invalidate bearish projections and trigger a rally toward $5XRP $2.81 Support Could Be Tested After 441% NVT Spike and Continued Sell Side Pressure^[2]. Conversely, a failure to hold this level risks a steep decline to $2.74 or even $2XRP Price Prediction: Analysts See Breakout to $5 If $3.10 Resistance Holds^[1]. The $2.74 support level is particularly significant, as its defense by bullish forces could spark a rebound toward $3.09XRP Price Prediction: Analysts See Breakout to $5 If $3.10 Resistance Holds^[1].

However, on-chain data complicates this technical outlook. The 441% NVT spike in September 2025XRP $2.81 Support Could Be Tested After 441% NVT Spike and Continued Sell Side Pressure^[2] signals heightened sell-side pressure, with market capitalization outpacing transaction volume. This imbalance historically precedes corrections, as overvaluation forces traders to reassess risk. If XRP's price action fails to align with its network's utility—measured by transaction throughput and wallet growth—the $3.13 resistance may prove insurmountable.

Historical backtesting of XRP's resistance-level breakouts from 2022 to 2025 reveals critical insights. A simple buy-and-hold strategy triggered by daily close breakouts above Pivot R1 resistance levels yielded a 62% hit rate, with an average return of 18% per successful tradeXRP Resistance Level Breakout Strategy Performance (2022–2025)^[6]. However, the strategy also faced a maximum drawdown of 34%, underscoring the volatility inherent in XRP's price action. These findings suggest that while resistance breakouts can generate meaningful gains, they require strict risk management to mitigate sharp corrections.

Conclusion: A Test of Resilience

XRP's path to breaking the $3 resistance is a microcosm of broader crypto market dynamics. While accumulation phases and trading volumes suggest short-term optimism, declining on-chain metrics highlight structural weaknesses in the network's utility. Investors must weigh these factors carefully: a breakout above $3.13 could validate XRP's role as a speculative asset, but without a corresponding rise in real-world adoption, the price gains may lack durability.

As the XRP Ledger navigates this inflection point, the interplay between market sentiment and on-chain behavior will remain pivotal. For now, the $3.13 level is not just a price target—it is a litmus test for whether XRP can evolve from a speculative token to a utility-driven asset.