XRP News Today: XRP's ETF Hopes vs. Whale Selloff: Bulls Battle to Reclaim $2.65

XRP's price plunged 20% in recent trading sessions as massive whale inflows to Binance signaled short-term distribution, according to on-chain data and market analysts. The token, which had rebounded from sub-$1.58 liquidation lows, faced renewed selling pressure amid a 23.9 million XRP ($63 million) transfer to the exchange, exacerbating bearish momentum [1]. The move coincided with a 2.4% rise in open interest to $1.36 billion, suggesting leveraged positioning remains elevated despite a $32 billion market-cap recovery following U.S. President Trump's tariff-driven crypto market turmoil [1].

Whale Activity and Market Volatility

XRP's price action highlighted aggressive whale-driven selling near the $2.65–$2.66 resistance zone, where large holders have deposited over 2.66 billion XRP tokens in the past 30 days-the highest inflow since April 2024 [2]. CryptoQuant data revealed that these inflows, coupled with a 440 million XRP sell-off in October, reflected a "distribution phase" as whales capitalized on liquidity on major exchanges [6]. Meanwhile, institutional buyers defended the $2.55 support level, with volume surging to 244.6 million at one point-nearly triple the 91.8 million average-indicating dip-buying activity [1].

Technical analysts noted a bearish bias as XRP traded below its 200-day moving average ($2.63), though a sustained rebound above $2.60 could rekindle a push toward $2.70 [1]. The $2.55–$2.56 zone has become critical support after repeated high-volume defenses, while resistance remains firm at $2.65–$2.66, where profit-taking and whale flows have historically triggered rejections [1].

Market Sentiment and ETF Hopes

Despite the bearish near-term outlook, broader sentiment for XRP remains mixed. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's August 2025 settlement with Ripple, which affirmed XRP is not a security, removed a major regulatory overhang and spurred institutional interest [5]. Multiple spot XRP ETF applications, including those from Grayscale and WisdomTree, are pending SEC approval, with decisions expected by late October [5]. Analysts estimate a 100% chance of at least one ETF approval, which could catalyze a surge in institutional demand [5].

However, whale activity has cast shadows over these bullish catalysts. A single 2.81 billion XRP transfer from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen's wallets in July-a move valued at $8.4 billion-sparked concerns about centralization and insider-driven market manipulation [4]. Current outflows, averaging $28 million daily over 90 days, suggest a sustained distribution phase, with some analysts warning that XRP could retest $2.20 or even $1.95 if bearish momentum persists [3].

Path Forward

Traders are closely monitoring key levels. A break below $2.50 could trigger further declines toward $2.30, while a sustained rebound above $2.65 might reignite a rally toward $2.80 and beyond [7]. On-chain metrics, including a descending triangle pattern and a Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) drop below zero, reinforce the bearish bias [3]. Meanwhile, the 200-day exponential moving average near $2.20 could serve as a potential floor if selling pressure intensifies [8].

The coming weeks will be pivotal. With ETF approvals looming and macroeconomic factors-including trade-war rhetoric and Federal Reserve policy-continuing to influence volatility, XRP's trajectory will hinge on whether bulls can reclaim $2.65 or if bears cement control below $2.50. For now, the market remains in a fragile balance, with whale flows and institutional sentiment poised to dictate the next chapter.

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