XRP News Today: XRP's ETF Hopes vs. Whale Exodus: Will Approval Trigger Sell-Off?

XRP faces renewed distribution pressure as whale outflows exceed $50 million per day, triggering warnings of a potential sharp correction. On-chain data from CryptoQuant and Whale Flow reveals sustained negative net flows since mid-2024, with large holders offloading approximately 440 million tokens (worth ~$6.5 billion) over 30 days Coinedition.com^[1]. This pattern mirrors historical sell-offs observed in early 2025, when whale distribution coincided with price peaks followed by corrections Yahoo Finance^[2].

Technical analysis highlights a descending triangle formation on XRP's price chart, with a critical support level at $2.68–$2.75. A breakdown below this threshold could trigger a 22% decline to $2.20, according to Peter Brandt, a veteran market analyst TradingNews Archive^[3]. Current price action near $2.83 shows thin liquidity above $3.00, while exchange reserves have surged to nine-month highs, exacerbating short-term vulnerability BeInCrypto^[4].

Exchange inflow data from Coinglass reinforces the bearish narrative, with spikes in XRP deposits to centralized platforms aligning with recent price tops in November 2024 and January 2025 Yahoo Finance^[2]. Meanwhile, Santiment analytics indicate that addresses holding 1 million to 10 million XRP reduced balances by 440 million tokens in 30 days, signaling deliberate distribution rather than short-term profit-taking .

Market sentiment remains divided amid anticipation of a spot XRP ETF approval. While Polymarket odds show >99% probability of 2025 approval, analysts caution that positive regulatory news could trigger a "sell-the-news" pullback if whales use it as an exit point . Institutional adoption, however, continues to grow, with Ripple advancing regulatory compliance in the EU under MiCA and expanding cross-border payment partnerships TradingNews Archive^[8].

The XRP circulating supply of ~59.3 billion tokens remains capped at 100 billion, but elevated exchange holdings and persistent whale selling have created downward pressure. Short-term buyers are defending the $2.75–$2.80 range, but analysts emphasize that a durable recovery requires sustained accumulation above $3.10 to neutralize bearish technical structures .