XRP News Today: XRP's ETF Hopes Hinge on History, Whale Moves, and a Legal Win

The potential approval of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has emerged as a pivotal event expected to significantly influence the token’s market dynamics. Analysts predict inflows of over $5 billion within the first month if an ETF is approved, a forecast attributed to the growing demand for XRP exposure among institutional and retail investors [1]. Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, highlighted that the market is underestimating the scale of this opportunity, referencing past underestimations for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs before their approval [1]. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces a decision deadline in October on nearly a dozen XRP ETF applications, part of over 90 pending exchange-traded products. Recent updates to half of the XRP ETF applications have been viewed as a positive sign by market observers, reinforcing the likelihood of an approval [1].

Market sentiment has shifted in favor of XRP ETF approvals, with the probability of such a decision rising to 87% on Polymarket within the last 24 hours [1]. This optimism is reflected in price movements; XRP rose 3% on Tuesday to $2.80, recovering from a recent low of $2.68 [4]. Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout, with some analysts identifying a falling wedge pattern as a bullish signal [4]. Additionally, the launch of CME XRP futures reached over $1 billion in open interest, signaling strong appetite for the token among traders [4].

The broader market context, however, presents potential headwinds. XRP has declined by approximately 23% since reaching an all-time high of $3.6654 in July. This correction coincided with a wave of profit-taking, as whales sold $6 billion in XRP within three weeks. However, recent data from Santiment indicates a reversal in this trend, with whales purchasing 350 million XRP coins valued at $984 million in the last two weeks [4]. These shifts in whale activity suggest growing confidence in XRP’s long-term value despite its recent volatility.

Regulatory uncertainties remain a factor in the ETF approval timeline. The SEC has a history of delaying decisions on crypto-related products, and there is a possibility that the XRP ETF approvals may not be announced as expected in October. Analysts caution that while the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs provides a reference point, XRP operates in a different market context and may not experience identical outcomes [4]. Broader market weakness, if it occurs, could also dampen demand for XRP ETFs, even if approvals are granted.

The potential approval of XRP ETFs is not the only factor influencing its trajectory. Ripple’s ongoing efforts to defend XRP against regulatory challenges have been acknowledged by legal experts and company executives. The XRP Army, a group of XRP holders and supporters, played a significant role in Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC. Their research and advocacy contributed to the court’s ruling that XRP is not a security in secondary transactions, providing Ripple with a strategic advantage [1]. This development, coupled with the possibility of ETF approval, could mark a turning point for XRP’s adoption and regulatory status in the United States.

Source:

[1] XRP ETF approval seen to unlock $5bn bonanza, but 'people ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-approval-seen-unlock-121250497.html)

[2] Ripple-SEC News: 'XRP Army' Credited by Lawyers in ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/04/xrp-army-credited-with-helping-ripple-tilt-case-against-sec)

[3] Are banks ready for XRP? SWIFT exec voices apprehensions (https://cryptoslate.com/swift-cio-questions-ripple-and-xrps-readiness-for-global-banking-standards/)

[4] XRP Faces Crucial Test With ETF Approval Chances Now ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1092956-20250904)