XRP News Today: XRP ETF Hopes vs. Bearish Warnings: October 2025 Showdown at $3.65 Resistance

XRP, the digital asset issued by Ripple, has been the focus of intense debate among market analysts as it trades near critical technical levels amid growing anticipation for potential ETF approvals in October 2025. The token currently consolidates within a range of $2.80 to $2.94, with key resistance at $3.65 and potential upside toward $4.50 if a breakout occurs XRP Price: Token Consolidates at $2.80 as Charts Signal Breakout …^[1]. Technical analysts have drawn parallels between XRP's current chart structure and its 2017 rally, which preceded a parabolic surge. However, mixed signals persist, with open interest in XRP futures declining to $7.46 billion and trading volume dropping 17.35% to $4.91 billion XRP Price: Token Consolidates at $2.80 as Charts Signal Breakout …^[1].

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has scheduled decisions on six spot XRP ETF applications between October 18 and October 25, 2025, creating a regulatory focal point for the asset. Proponents argue that ETF approvals could inject $5–15 billion into the market, driven by institutional demand and reduced liquidity on exchanges. For instance, Coinbase's XRP inventory has fallen nearly 90% in recent months, exacerbating concerns about supply constraints XRP Price Forecast: Ripple (XRP-USD) Targets $4 Breakout as ETF …^[8]. Analysts like Jake Claver note that XRP's long-term holders, who acquired tokens between $0.20 and $3, are unlikely to sell unless prices reach $10 or higher, potentially triggering a "supply shock" XRP Price Forecast: Ripple (XRP-USD) Targets $4 Breakout as ETF …^[8].

Conversely, bearish scenarios highlight risks of a breakdown below key support levels. XRP has tested the $2.80 support zone multiple times, with some analysts warning of a 10% decline to $2.50–$2.60 in September 2025 Can XRP Fall 10% in September 2025? The New Price …^[4]. Whale activity has added complexity: while large holders accumulated 120 million XRP during a recent dip, exchange reserves have risen 23% since late August, signaling potential selling pressure . On-chain data from Coinglass reveals $8.52 million in net inflows on September 2, but this has not yet translated into a sustained rally XRP (XRP) Price Prediction: Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?^[3].

The market remains divided on timing and magnitude. Conservative forecasts from Changelly and Binance project an average price of $2.96–$2.80 in September 2025, while bullish AI-driven models suggest a $4.20–$9 range by year-end . Regulatory outcomes will play a pivotal role: a favorable SEC ruling could legitimize XRP as an institutional asset, while a rejection risks reigniting uncertainty. The Rex-Osprey XRP ETF, which recorded $37.7 million in day-one inflows, has already demonstrated appetite for the token .

Whale positioning and technical indicators suggest a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The RSI (55) and MACD convergence point to neutral momentum, while the TD Sequential indicator signals a potential bullish reversal . However, a breakdown below $2.75 could expose deeper support at $2.20, aligning with historical lows from March and May 2025 Can XRP Fall 10% in September 2025? The New Price …^[4]. Analysts emphasize that any ETF-driven rally will depend on sustained institutional buying and macroeconomic conditions, including Federal Reserve policy and global risk appetite XRP Price Prediction: XRP Whales Position for $3.66 Retest as …^[9].

In conclusion, XRP's trajectory hinges on a delicate balance of regulatory outcomes, technical execution, and macroeconomic forces. While ETF approvals could catalyze a surge toward $4.50, risks of a retracement to $2.50 remain elevated. Market participants are advised to monitor key levels, including $3.65 resistance and $2.75 support, as well as SEC rulings and whale activity for directional clues.