XRP News Today: XRP's Crucible: Bearish $2.68 Support or Bullish $3.15 Breakout?

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has flagged XRP as a conditional short candidate, warning that the cryptocurrency could decline to $2.22 if the price closes below the $2.68 support level on the weekly chart. Brandt's analysis centers on a descending triangle pattern forming on XRP's price chart, a technical indicator historically associated with bearish outcomes. According to his assessment, a weekly close below $2.68743 would confirm the pattern and trigger a measured move to $2.22163, representing a potential 18–20% drop from current levels around $2.85 Blocknews.com^[1].

On-chain data supports the bearish narrative. Over 320 million XRP tokens moved to exchanges in the past week, pushing total exchange-held supply to approximately 3.8 billion coins, a nine-month high. This surge in exchange inflows suggests increased selling pressure as holders prepare to liquidate positions. Additionally, wallets holding 1–10 million XRP have sold roughly 440 million tokens in the last 30 days, signaling a decline in whale demand and further exacerbating downward momentum Coincentral.com^[2].

The technical bearishness is compounded by elevated fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) metrics. Santiment data shows XRP's FUD index at its highest level in six months, reflecting deteriorating market sentiment. This aligns with heavy liquidations of long positions, which erased over $21 million in leveraged trades within 24 hours. Such liquidations often precede a "long squeeze," where forced selling accelerates price declines En.coinotag.com^[3].

While Brandt's bearish outlook dominates the immediate narrative, some analysts argue for alternative scenarios. CasiTrades, for instance, highlights that XRP has held near the $3.00 Fibonacci support level for several days, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A clean breakout above $3.15 could invalidate the descending triangle and open the door to higher targets, including $3.60, $4.00, and $4.50 Coingape.com^[4]. Similarly, Ali Martinez notes that a sustained rally above $3.15 could drive XRP toward $3.60, though this depends on overcoming resistance and maintaining buyer absorption of increased supply Econotimes.com ```^[5].

The market's critical juncture hinges on two key levels: $2.68743 as the bearish trigger and $3.15 as the bullish invalidation point. A close below $2.68 would cement the downside case, while a breakout above $3.15 could shift focus to higher price targets. Whale activity and regulatory uncertainty remain pivotal factors. The recent sell-off by large holders, coupled with delayed U.S. SEC decisions on XRP ETFs, has heightened caution among investors.

XRP's current market position places it just below BNB in rankings, with a market cap of approximately $177 billion. While the token's historical resilience during FUD-driven periods offers some optimism, the confluence of bearish technicals, on-chain flows, and whale behavior presents a challenging environment. Traders and investors are closely monitoring these dynamics, with the next few weeks likely to determine whether XRP reclaims its upward trajectory or faces further consolidation.