XRP News Today: XRP at Crossroads: Whale Exodus vs. Institutional Resilience Ahead of SEC Verdict

XRP, the native token of Ripple's XRP Ledger, has experienced heightened volatility amid intensified whale selling and anticipation of regulatory developments. Over the past three days, approximately 2.23 billion XRP tokens-valued at around $5.5 billion at current prices-were transferred from large wallets to exchanges, signaling potential distribution. A single 23.9 million XRP transfer (worth $63 million) to Binance coincided with a sharp price decline, pushing XRP below $2.60 and triggering liquidations totaling $150 million in futures contracts . Analysts attribute the sell-off to sustained whale activity, with daily outflows exceeding $50 million since early 2024, as tracked by Whale Flow's 30-day moving average Could XRP Price Fall Below $2 as Whales Sell $50 Million Daily?^[2].

Technical indicators highlight critical support and resistance levels. XRP's price has oscillated between $2.55 and $2.66, with bears extending control below the 200-day moving average ($2.63). Institutional buyers have defended the $2.55 level, but sustained weakness below $2.60 could trigger further declines toward $2.20, as outlined by chart analyst Peter Brandt Could XRP Price Fall Below $2 as Whales Sell $50 Million Daily?^[2]. The token's descending triangle pattern, if completed, projects a potential drop to $2.20-a 22% decline from current levels XRP Price Skyrockets or Sinks? Legal Wins, Whale Moves, and ETF …^[5].

Regulatory developments remain pivotal. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to decide on multiple spot XRP ETF applications between October 18 and 25, 2025. Market participants assign a 95% probability of approval to Grayscale's XRP Trust and similar products, with projected inflows ranging from $5–11 billion in the first year . Such approvals could unlock institutional capital and drive XRP's price toward $3–$4, though short-term volatility persists as whales continue offloading tokens .

Post-crash on-chain data reveals a shift in market dynamics. Despite a 40% intraday drop to $1.77, XRP's exchange supply remained stable, indicating derivatives-driven liquidations rather than spot selling. Meanwhile, large holders accumulated 1.04 billion XRP ($2.54 billion) during the downturn, suggesting strategic buying at the bottom . This accumulation aligns with historical patterns, where similar Wyckoff VSA signals preceded 54% rebounds in May 2025 .

The broader market context includes a government shutdown delay in SEC reviews, complicating ETF timelines. However, Ripple's recent legal settlement with the SEC-paying a $125 million fine while affirming XRP's non-security status-has bolstered institutional confidence . The company's RLUSD stablecoin and bank charter application further reinforce XRP's utility in cross-border payments, with SBI Holdings and Santander among key adopters .

Price forecasts remain divided. Optimists, including Standard Chartered, project XRP could reach $5–$12 by 2026 under favorable ETF and adoption scenarios. Conversely, bearish analysts warn of a potential $2.20–$2.50 range if technical breakdowns persist XRP Price Skyrockets or Sinks? Legal Wins, Whale Moves, and ETF …^[5].