XRP News Today: XRP's $4 Surge Depends on October ETF Verdict: Regulators Hold the Key

XRP's price trajectory has drawn significant attention from analysts, with multiple technical indicators and on-chain data suggesting a potential surge toward $4 in the coming months. A key catalyst is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) golden cross on XRP's three-day chart, a pattern historically correlated with price increases of up to 575% in prior cycles Cointelegraph^[1]. The latest crossover aligns with XRP's retest of the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.94, a level that has historically coincided with bullish momentum shifts. Analysts project a target range of $3.98–$4.32 by October, with a descending triangle breakout reinforcing the $3.98 level as a near-term target Cointelegraph^[4].

Fibonacci retracement and extension levels further bolster the case for a $4 move. A clean close above $3.39 could trigger a 1.618 Fibonacci extension to $4.32, representing a 40% increase from current levels Cointelegraph^[1]. This aligns with broader technical patterns, including a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, which analysts say could push XRP to $4.08 if the $3.00 resistance is breached . On-chain data also highlights muted profit-taking, with the percent supply in profit remaining stable at elevated levels since November 2024. This suggests long-term holders are less inclined to sell, potentially supporting the price as it approaches key ETF decision dates in October Cointelegraph^[1].

The timing of these developments coincides with six spot XRP ETF applications awaiting SEC rulings between October 18 and 25, 2025. These decisions, including the Grayscale and 21Shares XRP ETFs, are viewed as critical catalysts. A favorable outcome could drive institutional adoption and liquidity, mirroring the post-ETF approval surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum . Ripple's recent acquisition of Rail for $200 million to enhance cross-border payment infrastructure is another foundational factor, potentially boosting XRP's utility as a bridge currency .

However, short-term caution persists. An RSI breakdown on the daily chart in early October signaled weakening momentum, with analysts warning of a potential pullback to support levels at $2.01–$1.55 if the $3.00 barrier fails Marketacad^[2]. Whale activity also presents mixed signals: while large holders have accumulated 30 million XRP during recent dips, net holder position changes remain positive since August 22, indicating sustained buying pressure .

Analysts remain divided on the broader implications. While some, like Lark Davis, emphasize a $4 target contingent on a breakout above $3.00 Cointelegraph^[4], others, such as Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, project a $12.50 price by 2028 . For October, the consensus leans bullish, with Santiment noting that retail bearish sentiment-a historical precursor to rebounds-has reached its highest level since June 2025 Cointelegraph^[4].