XRP/Mexican Peso Market Overview

Summary
• XRP/Mexican Peso opened at 45.88 and closed at 42.85, down 6.78% over 24 hours.
• Price dropped sharply from 45.88 to 42.95 in early hours, followed by consolidation around 42.8.
• Volume surged on the 19:00 ET bearish breakout and again at 03:15 ET on a sharp rally to 46.5.
• RSI moved into oversold territory near the session close, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility prior to the 03:15 ET breakout, indicating a potential breakout trigger.

XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) traded in a bearish tone over the past 24 hours, with a session open of 45.88 and a close of 42.85 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 46.50 during the overnight hours and a low of 41.398 at 04:45 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 1,218.8 units, with total turnover reaching 49,810.90 MXN. Price action suggests bearish dominance early in the session followed by a brief rally and renewed bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00 ET, confirming the downward shift in sentiment. This was followed by a consolidation phase in the 42.80–42.85 range from 21:30 ET to 03:15 ET. A bullish breakout occurred at 03:15 ET, with price surging to 46.50, forming a bullish engulfing pattern as well. However, this was short-lived, with price falling back below key support into the 42.00–42.30 range by the end of the session. Key support levels identified include 42.80 and 42.00, while resistance levels are seen at 42.85 and 43.00.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the close of 42.85, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period average at 43.25 serves as immediate overhead resistance. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are likely positioned below 42.85, reinforcing the bearish setup for the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the bearish phase at 19:00 ET, indicating bearish momentum. By the end of the session, the RSI had fallen into oversold territory, hovering near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, as long as price remains below 43.00, the bearish bias may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted significantly between 21:30 ET and 03:15 ET, with price trading within a narrow 42.80–42.85 range. The 03:15 ET candle broke out of the Bollinger Band with a close at 46.50, indicating a strong reversal attempt. However, the subsequent move back down into the 42.00–42.30 range suggests that the bullish breakout may not be sustainable unless the 43.00 level is retested and held.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged during two key moments: the bearish breakout at 19:00 ET and the bullish breakout at 03:15 ET. The 19:00 ET candle had a volume of 388.6 units, confirming the bearish move, while the 03:15 ET candle had a massive volume of 435.2 units, validating the short-term rally. However, the subsequent lack of follow-through volume suggests that the rally may lack conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 19:00–03:15 ET swing, the 42.85 level aligns with the 38.2% retracement, and the 42.25–42.30 range corresponds to the 61.8% level. Price found support near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible continuation of the bearish trend if it fails to break above 42.85.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying Bullish-Engulfing candlestick patterns as buy signals. Given the strong bearish momentum observed in this session, a bearish counterpart—such as the Bearish-Engulfing pattern—could be used to trigger sell signals. For the purposes of backtesting, this pair could be tested on a fixed holding period of 5 trading candles (75 minutes) after a confirmed Bearish-Engulfing pattern. Alternatively, an exit could be triggered by the first opposite (Bullish) candle. Given the volatility observed between 21:30 ET and 03:15 ET, the strategy would benefit from testing on this pair from 2022-01-01 to present to assess profitability, drawdowns, and risk-adjusted returns.