XRP's MACD Golden Cross and Momentum-Driven Entry Points in Altcoins: A Technical Deep Dive

In late 2025, XRP's price trajectory took a dramatic turn, marked by a bearish death cross in December and a subsequent bullish golden cross in early 2026. This volatility, driven by macroeconomic pressures and institutional dynamics, offers a compelling case study for momentum-driven traders navigating altcoin markets.

The Bearish Death Cross of December 2025

XRP's descent in late 2025 began with a critical bearish signal: the MACD line crossing below the signal line, a death cross. This event coincided with a breakdown below the $1.88 support level, pushing the price to $1.85 on December 29, 2025. The negative MACD divergence aligned with bearish momentum in the RSI and moving averages, prompting analysts to project a potential drop to $1.50. However, this bearish narrative faltered as the $1.77 support held firm, fueled by surging demand for XRP ETFs. This reversal underscores the importance of institutional flows in altcoin momentum, where ETF inflows can counteract technical breakdowns.

The Bullish Golden Cross and January 2026 Rally

By early 2026, XRP's technical landscape shifted dramatically. A 5-day MACD golden cross emerged on the 4-hour chart, with the histogram turning positive-a pattern historically linked to price surges. This signal coincided with a 30% rally, propelling XRP above $2.00 and reaching $2.35 by January 2026. The rally was underpinned by robust ETF inflows, with U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracting $1.3 billion in 50 days, and institutional buying amplifying demand. Notably, the price held above key moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs), confirming an uptrend.

Momentum-Driven Entry Points: Technical and Institutional Synergy

For momentum traders, XRP's golden cross in January 2026 presented a high-probability entry point. The 4-hour chart's bullish divergence, combined with ETF-driven liquidity, created a favorable risk-reward profile. Analysts highlighted the $2.15–$2.30 support zone as a critical area for buyers to defend, with a break above $2.42–$2.45 potentially unlocking $2.60 targets. This aligns with broader altcoin momentum strategies, where technical signals and institutional sentiment often converge to drive short-term trends.

However, caution is warranted. While the daily and 4-hour charts showed strength, weekly and monthly MACD readings displayed bearish divergences. Blockchain Backer noted that the monthly MACD mirrored past downturns, suggesting the broader trend may not have fully reversed. This duality-bullish near-term momentum versus bearish longer-term signals-highlights the need for multi-timeframe analysis in altcoin trading.

Risks and Regulatory Tailwinds

Despite the bullish technicals, XRP faces headwinds. Regulatory clarity, while improving (e.g., the U.S. SEC's lawsuit resolution and the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act), remains a wildcard. Additionally, liquidity constraints and derivatives market leverage resets could amplify volatility. Standard Chartered's $8 price target for 2026 hinges on sustained ETF inflows and favorable macro conditions, but weak liquidity or regulatory setbacks could derail this trajectory.

Conclusion: Balancing Optimism and Caution

XRP's journey from a December 2025 death cross to a January 2026 golden cross illustrates the interplay of technical signals and institutional forces in altcoin markets. Momentum-driven traders may find opportunities in the $2.15–$2.30 support zone, but must remain vigilant to bearish divergences on longer timeframes. As ETF inflows and regulatory progress continue to shape XRP's narrative, the token's ability to break above $2.40–$2.60 will be pivotal in determining whether this rally marks a trend reversal or a temporary bounce.