Is XRP's Hourly Golden Cross a Deceptive Bullish Signal Amid a $2.80 Price Retreat?

The XRP hourly golden cross on May 21, 2025, initially sparked optimism among traders, with the 50-hour moving average crossing above the 200-hour line on the XRP-BTC pair [1]. This event, interpreted as a potential catalyst for a bull run, coincided with XRP surpassing the 50-day SMA on its daily chart [3]. However, the subsequent price action has raised critical questions about the signal’s validity. By September 2025, XRP had retreated to $2.80, a level that now serves as a battleground for bulls and bears.

Technical Analysis: A Mixed Bag of Signals

The golden cross’s failure to hold above $2.90—key resistance—has led analysts to label it a “fakeout.” According to a report by Bitget, the price’s inability to sustain momentum above this level, coupled with downward-tilting moving averages, suggests a lack of conviction in the bullish narrative [1]. The RSI and MACD, while showing neutral-to-bullish momentum in the mid-50s, have also highlighted divergences. For instance, the MACD histogram’s convergence toward a bullish signal contrasts with the price’s repeated rejection at $2.90 [5]. This dissonance underscores the risk of relying solely on short-term technical indicators.

A symmetrical triangle pattern forming under $3.00 adds complexity. Traders are watching for a clean breakout above $3.30 to confirm further upside potential [5]. However, without a sustained close above $2.90 and increasing volume, the short-term bias remains neutral-to-bearish [1]. The recent drop to $2.80 has also reignited concerns about a retest of the $2.70 support level, a threshold that, if breached, could signal deeper bearish pressure [2].

Market Sentiment: Institutional Optimism vs. Retail Caution

While technical indicators paint a mixed picture, market sentiment reveals a tug-of-war between institutional optimism and retail caution. Whale activity has been a notable bullish factor: over 340 million XRP tokens (~$960 million) were accumulated in late August 2025, reflecting long-term conviction [5]. This accumulation, coupled with regulatory clarity post-SEC resolution in 2024, has bolstered XRP’s appeal in institutional portfolios [4].

Yet, retail traders remain skeptical. The extreme imbalance in derivatives liquidations—$56,076 in long positions liquidated in one hour with no short liquidation activity—signals overconfidence among bulls [3]. Such imbalances often precede volatility, as seen in the recent price retreat to $2.80. Analysts warn that without sustained follow-through volume, the golden cross may remain a deceptive signal [1].

Macro Factors: ETF Hype and September Weakness

The broader macroeconomic context further complicates XRP’s outlook. The potential approval of XRP ETFs in late 2025 has driven speculative buying, but this optimism is tempered by historical “Red September” trends, where crypto markets traditionally underperform [6]. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s policy uncertainty—particularly regarding rate cuts—introduces volatility that could amplify XRP’s swings [5].

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

XRP’s hourly golden cross in May 2025 initially appeared as a bullish catalyst, but its subsequent failure to hold above $2.90 has cast doubt on its reliability. While institutional demand and whale accumulation suggest long-term potential, short-term traders must navigate a fragile technical landscape. For XRP to validate the golden cross, it must break above $3.00 with sustained volume and hold above $2.90. Until then, the $2.80–$2.70 range remains a critical battleground. Investors should approach with caution, balancing bullish technical setups with bearish risk management strategies.

Source:
[1] XRP Hourly Golden Cross May Be Misleading as Price Drops to $2.80; $2.70 Target Possible [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604953951]
[2] XRP Golden Cross Fakeout: $2.7 Next? [https://u.today/xrp-golden-cross-fakeout-27-next]
[3] XRP Bulls Go All In in Insane 56076% Liquidation Imbalance [https://u.today/xrp-bulls-go-all-in-in-insane-56076-liquidation-imbalance]
[4] XRP Price Prediction: Can ETF Approval Push Ripple to $7? [https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/can-etf-approval-push-ripple-to-7-why-analysts-see-4-and-7-as-the-next-xrp-price-predictions/]
[5] XRP Consolidates Below $3 as RSI and MACD Signal ... [https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-consolidates-below-3-rsi-152140335.html]
[6] Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Hold Steady as 'Red September ... [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-hold-steady-190400592.html]