Is XRP Entering a Bearish Phase or the Start of a New Bull Run?

The XRP market in late 2025 finds itself at a crossroads, with conflicting signals emerging from technical and on-chain analyses. On one side, bearish technical indicators rooted in historical price behavior suggest caution. On the other, bullish on-chain metrics hint at a potential reversal in sentiment. This article dissects these opposing narratives to help investors navigate the uncertainty.

Technical Bearish Signals: The 200-Week SMA Breakdown

A critical technical warning comes from the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a long-term benchmark for market strength. XRP has recently slipped below this level, currently around $2.54, a development that echoes past bear market triggers in 2018 and 2021, according to a The Tradeable analysis. Historically, prolonged trading below the 200-week SMA has preceded extended downturns, with the metric now acting as a resistance rather than support, according to a TradingView report.

Compounding this, the 50-week SMA-currently at $2.45-has become another critical threshold. Analysts warn that closing below this level could signal a broader bearish trend, according to the The Tradeable analysis. The flattening of both moving averages further suggests cooling long-term momentum, with XRP potentially needing months to reestablish a new base above these levels, according to the The Tradeable analysis. For technical purists, this paints a grim picture: a token in structural weakness, reliant on a sustained breakout to avoid further decline.

Bullish On-Chain Insights: Accumulation and Institutional Interest

Contrasting the technical pessimism, on-chain data tells a different story. Levi Rietveld, a prominent crypto analyst, highlights declining exchange reserves as a bullish sign, according to an Intellectia analysis. This aligns with XRP's stabilization above key support levels, accompanied by rising trading volumes-a classic precursor to demand-driven rallies, according to the Intellectia analysis.

Rietveld also emphasizes macroeconomic tailwinds, including growing institutional and sovereign interest in cryptocurrencies. These factors, he argues, could propel XRP to $20–$23 by 2025 under a conservative scenario, with even more aggressive targets like $70 under bullish conditions, according to a CryptoBasic forecast. While market corrections remain a risk, Rietveld views them as opportunities for patient investors to accumulate at discounted prices, according to an XRP analyst video.

Strategic Considerations: Balancing the Signals

The tension between these analyses underscores the importance of diversifying one's investment strategy. For technical traders, the 200-week SMA represents a make-or-break level. A sustained rebound above $2.54 could invalidate bearish scenarios, while a continued slide toward $2.45 would likely deepen the bear case. On-chain optimists, meanwhile, argue that XRP's fundamentals-such as its role in cross-border payments and regulatory clarity-are undervalued in current price action, according to the CryptoBasic forecast.

A critical wildcard is macroeconomic stability. If 2025 sees renewed institutional adoption or regulatory breakthroughs, XRP's on-chain strength could catalyze a broader rally. Conversely, a prolonged crypto winter or geopolitical shocks might amplify the technical bear case.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

XRP's trajectory hinges on whether the current technical weakness is a temporary correction or a structural shift. While the 200-week SMA breakdown raises red flags, the on-chain data suggests resilience and accumulation. Investors must weigh these signals against macro trends and their own risk tolerance. For now, a cautious bullish stance-backed by on-chain strength but hedged against technical risks-may offer the most balanced approach.