XRP's Emerging Bull Case: Taker Buy Pressure and ETF Flows Signal a Potential Breakout

The XRP market is undergoing a quiet but profound transformation, driven by a confluence of structural and technical factors that suggest a potential breakout scenario. While the asset's price has faced short-term headwinds, deeper metrics-particularly institutional ETF inflows and improving Taker Buy Pressure-paint a compelling bull case for 2026.

Structural Bull Case: ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand

The most striking development in XRP's favor is the surge in institutional demand through ETFs. By December 2025, XRP ETFs had absorbed $483 million in inflows over 43 consecutive days, making them the second-fastest crypto ETF to reach the $1.3 billion threshold after Bitcoin. This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which saw outflows of $1.09 billion and $564 million, respectively, during the same period.

Institutional investors appear to be prioritizing long-term mandates over short-term volatility. Despite XRP's 15% price decline in December-from $2.22 to $1.77- ETF inflows continued unabated, reflecting confidence in XRP's fundamentals and utility. By January 2026, these ETFs had attracted $1.18 billion in net inflows since their November 2025 launch, with total 2025 inflows reaching $3.7 billion. This accumulation, even as XRP traded near $2.00, highlights a structural divergence between retail and institutional behavior.

Exchange-held XRP balances have also fallen to multi-year lows, reducing available liquidity and amplifying the impact of sustained buying. Analysts argue that this tightening market structure means even modest demand could drive significant price action. One projection suggests that if institutions maintain their current pace of absorption, XRP's price could double to $4.00 by year-end 2026.

Technical Bull Case: Taker Buy Pressure and Market Balance

Complementing the structural narrative is a technical shift in XRP's on-chain dynamics. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance-a key indicator of immediate market demand- rose to 0.991 in December 2025, its highest level since late November. This metric, which measures the ratio of buy-side to sell-side market orders, approached the neutral 1.0 threshold, signaling a transition from fear-driven selling to a more balanced market structure.

The improvement in Taker Buy Pressure suggests that buyers are increasingly willing to execute trades at market prices, absorbing supply more effectively and reducing the risk of sharp sell-offs. This trend aligns with XRP's recent price recovery and indicates growing confidence among traders after a prolonged bearish phase. As sell-side aggression wanes, the market is moving closer to equilibrium, a critical precursor to sustained bullish momentum.

Convergence of Structural and Technical Factors

The interplay between ETF-driven structural demand and improving technical indicators creates a powerful catalyst for XRP. Institutional inflows are not only reducing exchange-held liquidity but also signaling a shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, Taker Buy Pressure metrics confirm that retail and spot traders are aligning with institutional buying, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of demand.

This convergence is particularly significant in a market where liquidity is already constrained. With XRP's supply on exchanges at multi-year lows, even moderate buying pressure could trigger sharp price responses. The combination of mandate-driven institutional allocations and improving retail confidence suggests that XRP is entering a phase where technical and structural forces are no longer at odds but working in tandem.

Conclusion

While XRP's price action in late 2025 may have appeared bearish on the surface, the underlying data tells a different story. Structural inflows into ETFs and a technical shift in Taker Buy Pressure indicate that the market is primed for a breakout. As institutions continue to absorb supply and on-chain dynamics normalize, XRP's price could see a meaningful re-rating in 2026. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: the bull case for XRP is no longer speculative-it is being validated by both institutional and technical realities.