XRP's Downward Spiral: Is This the Final Dip Before a Reversal?

Okay, I need to write an in-depth investment analysis article on XRP's potential reversal based on technical and on-chain data. The user wants the title "XRP's Downward Spiral: Is This the Final Dip Before a Reversal?" and to use the provided research. Let me start by organizing the information from the four search rounds.

First, the technical analysis from Search Round 1 shows XRP struggling against resistance levels, with RSI around 45, and a potential death cross. The price is below key moving averages. Search Round 2 adds on-chain data: declining transaction volume but a surge in wallet creation. The NVT ratio from Search Round 3 is favorable, suggesting a healthy valuation. Historical data in Search Round 4 shows past rebounds coincided with wallet growth and NVT dips.

I need to structure the article logically. Start with the current technical picture, then on-chain metrics, and historical parallels. The conclusion should weigh the risks and opportunities.

For the technical part, mention the death cross, RSI levels, and support/resistance zones. Cite the sources from the first search round. Then, on-chain analysis: transaction volume vs. wallet growth. Highlight the contradiction between declining payments and increasing wallets. Use the NVT ratio to argue valuation is reasonable.

The image should visually represent the technical indicators and on-chain activity. Maybe a chart showing XRP price with RSI and moving averages, and another for wallet growth. But the user wants one image description. Perhaps a split image: left side showing a price chart with key levels, right side showing wallet creation surge.

Data visualization: A price chart for XRP, maybe a trend chart. The user's example uses "SYMBOL Price", so "XRP Price" would be appropriate. Place it after discussing the technical analysis.

Citations need to be numbered correctly. Each cited source in the text must have a corresponding entry in the Source list. Make sure to only include the sources actually used. For example, if I cite Ripple Price Analysis: XRP's Path to $3 Still in Doubt Due to This Crucial Resistance, XRP nears bearish 'death cross' technical pattern at $2.27, XRP Price Forecast: Market decline continues as SOPR resets. Here's current market trends, retail demand, technical analysis and analysts insights, etc., the Source list should have those in order.

Check for the tone: professional, using phrases like "According to a report by..." when citing sources. Avoid mentioning 10x Research. Ensure the argument is persuasive, balancing bearish and bullish signals.

Potential structure:

1. Introduction: XRP's recent decline and the question of reversal.
2. Technical Analysis: Death cross, RSI, support/resistance levels.
3. On-Chain Metrics: Transaction volume, wallet growth, NVT ratio.
4. Historical Parallels: Past rebounds with similar on-chain signs.
5. Conclusion: Weighing the factors for potential reversal.

Make sure each section flows into the next, using the provided data points. Use the image and visual tags appropriately, ensuring they are not consecutive.

Now, draft the article following these points, ensuring citations are correctly placed and sources are listed at the end.

Technical Indicators Signal Weakness, But Oversold Conditions Linger

XRP's price action on the USDT pair has been confined to a narrow range around $2.50, failing to break above the critical $2.60–$2.75 resistance zone, as noted in a Cryptopotato analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flattened at 45, reflecting weak bullish momentum, while the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) threatens to cross below the 200-day SMA-a classic "death cross" pattern that historically signals prolonged bearish trends, as noted in a Crypto.news report. On the BTC pair, XRP remains under pressure at 2,270 sats, trading below both the 50-day and 200-day EMA lines, according to a Cryptopotato analysis.

However, the RSI has recently dipped to oversold territory (30), suggesting potential for a short-term rebound if buying interest materializes, according to an Economic Times report. Key support levels at $2.22, $1.90, and $1.61 now act as critical psychological barriers. A break below $2.00 could reignite selling pressure, but a sustained rally above $2.62 (200-day EMA) might trigger a test of the $2.78 confluence level, as noted in the Economic Times report.

On-Chain Metrics Reveal Contradictions and Hope

On-chain data tells a nuanced story. While daily payment volume has fallen below 1 billion XRP to 903 million-a sign of waning network utility-wallet activity has surged. Over 21,595 new XRP wallets were created in 48 hours, the highest growth since January 2025, as noted in a Coinrise report. This spike suggests renewed retail interest, though some analysts caution that much of the activity may stem from whale distribution or arbitrage rather than genuine demand, according to the Coinrise report.

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has declined, indicating a healthier valuation relative to transaction volume and reducing the risk of overbought conditions, as noted in a Yahoo Finance analysis. Historically, dips in the NVT ratio have preceded short-term price rebounds, particularly when accompanied by wallet growth and a capitulation phase in the STH-NUPL ratio, according to the Yahoo Finance analysis.

Historical Parallels: Wallet Growth and NVT Dips Preceded Rebounds

In November 2025, a similar surge in wallet creation (21,595 new wallets in 48 hours) coincided with a 10% price recovery from $2.09 to $2.30, as noted in a Coinotag report. Santiment data shows users who bought during that dip gained 12% in 24 hours, according to a ChainCatcher report. If history repeats, XRP could test $2.54 and $2.80 if it breaks above $2.40 resistance, according to the Yahoo Finance analysis. However, a failure to hold $2.27 support could prolong the correction toward $2.13, as noted in a Investing.com analysis.

The Verdict: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

XRP's technical and on-chain profiles reflect a market in transition. The death cross and weak RSI underscore near-term bearish risks, but oversold conditions and surging wallet growth hint at early accumulation. For a reversal to materialize, buying pressure must overcome institutional selling and stabilize the price above key moving averages. Retail investors eyeing a rebound should monitor the $2.20 support level and NVT ratio trends, while institutional players may need to step in to drive a sustained recovery.

As the XRP Ledger balances between capitulation and accumulation, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this is the final dip-or a prelude to a deeper correction.

Sources
1. Cryptopotato analysis
2. Crypto.news report
3. Economic Times report
4. Coinrise report
5. Yahoo Finance analysis
6. Coinotag report
7. ChainCatcher report
8. Investing.com analysis