XRP's Critical Technical Breakdown: Is $1 the Next Target?

XRP, Ripple's native token, has entered a critical phase of bearish momentum, with technical indicators, whale behavior, and institutional dynamics converging to create a volatile price dislocation. As the token trades below key moving averages and faces aggressive selling pressure from large holders, the question looms: Is $1 the next target?

Technical Indicators Signal Deepening Bearish Bias

XRP's technical profile in late 2025 paints a grim picture. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 36.15, well below the 40 threshold that signals weak market conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative and nearly flat, indicating a mature bearish phase without immediate reversal signals according to analysis. Meanwhile, the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at $2.20 and $2.60, respectively, form a "death cross", reinforcing the downtrend.

A confirmed double-top pattern with a neckline at $2 further amplifies bearish concerns. A break below this level could trigger a drop toward $1.07 or even $1.00, depending on the strength of the sell-off. Immediate support levels at $1.85 and $1.87 are critical; failure to hold these could accelerate the decline toward $1.80 and beyond. Analysts like Peter Brandt and FXStreet have highlighted the 200-week moving average near $1.07 as a pivotal long-term support zone.

Whale Selling and Institutional Buying: A Clash of Forces

The price dislocation in XRP is driven by a stark divergence between institutional buying and whale-driven selling. Following the launch of the Canary ETF (XRPC) and Franklin Templeton's EZRP in late 2025, XRP ETF inflows surged by $245 million. However, these inflows have not translated into immediate price gains due to T+1 settlement cycles and off-exchange (OTC) accumulation, which mask buying pressure.

Conversely, whale activity has exacerbated downward pressure. In the two days after the Canary ETF's debut, whales offloaded 200 million XRP, triggering a 6% price drop to $2.02. Over the preceding four weeks, large holders sold 1.18 billion XRP, intensifying the bearish bias. Despite a temporary accumulation phase between September and November-where whales added 340 million tokens-distribution resumed in late 2025, with the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line hitting 8.14 billion, a clear sign of sustained sell pressure.

This whale selling contrasts with institutional optimism. Ripple's regulatory settlement in August 2025 removed key uncertainties, spurring adoption of Ripple USD (RLUSD) and Ripple Prime. Yet, the immediate market impact remains muted as whale-driven liquidity constraints persist.

The Path to $1: A Plausible Scenario?

The confluence of technical weakness and whale selling raises the possibility of XRP testing $1. A breakdown below $1.80 would likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and automated liquidations, accelerating the decline. Historical support levels at $1.78 and $1.92 are critical; if these fail, the 200-week MA at $1.07 becomes the next key target.

Analysts caution that the bearish case hinges on continued whale distribution and weak derivatives activity. For instance, a failure to hold above $1.90 could see XRP fall into a tight range between $1.89–$1.96, where the 50 and 200 EMAs are densely packed. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics like XRP Ledger Velocity hitting a 2025 high on December 2 suggest increased token circulation, but this has not yet translated into price stability.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

XRP's near-term trajectory is precarious. While institutional inflows and regulatory clarity offer long-term optimism, the immediate bearish bias-driven by whale selling and technical breakdowns-cannot be ignored. A move toward $1 remains plausible if key support levels collapse, but a rebound above $2.28 could rekindle bullish momentum toward $2.50–$2.85. Investors must closely monitor whale activity, ETF inflows, and on-chain liquidity to gauge whether the market can stabilize or if the $1 threshold becomes a reality.