XRP's Critical Price Inflection Point: A Bearish Breakdown or Bullish Reversal?

The XRP price has reached a pivotal juncture in late 2025, with its recent breakdown below $1.90 sparking intense debate among analysts and investors. Technical indicators, on-chain data, and Elliott Wave patterns all point to a critical inflection point, where the token could either collapse toward $1.10 or stage a bullish reversal. This analysis examines the bearish and bullish arguments through the lens of market structure, price action, and expert insights from prominent crypto analysts.

The Bearish Case: A Structural Breakdown Below $1.90

XRP's failure to reclaim $1.90 has triggered a cascade of bearish signals. A death cross-where the price trades below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages-has reinforced the bearish bias, signaling a potential 60% decline toward $0.80. The breakdown below $1.90 has also activated a descending channel pattern, with key support levels at $1.81 and $1.68 acting as potential targets for further declines according to analysis.

Technical analysts highlight a bearish regression channel projecting a 14% drop to $1.62 and a 34% drop to $1.25. On-chain data exacerbates these concerns: while ETF inflows have added $1 billion to XRP's liquidity, large whales have been offloading holdings, creating a divergence between inflows and price action. Retail and long-term holders are also selling during rebounds, with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remaining negative and trending downward according to reports.

A critical risk lies in the $1.10 level. If XRP breaks below $1.81, it could trigger a continuation of the descending triangle pattern, accelerating the path to $1.52 and potentially $1.10. This scenario is compounded by macroeconomic pressures, including Ripple's CTO stepping down and SWIFT's development of blockchain-based alternatives, which could erode XRP's utility.

The Bullish Case: Elliott Wave and On-Chain Accumulation Signals

Despite the bearish momentum, some analysts argue that XRP's recent decline is part of a larger bullish cycle. Dark Defender, a prominent crypto analyst, posits that XRP is navigating a Monthly Wave 4 structure, with the $1.88 level acting as a key retracement target. He projects a continuation of the bullish trend, with XRP potentially rising to $5.85 in the next cycle.

Elliott Wave analysis by XForceGlobal further supports this view. XRP is forming a flat pattern following the October 10 crash, which the analyst interprets as a corrective phase before a sustained rally. A completed C-wave within this structure could push prices beyond $20, though this hinges on XRP maintaining momentum above $2.60 according to analysis.

On-chain data also reveals mixed signals. While short-term holders have reduced their supply share by 39.5%, mega whales have accumulated 1.27 billion XRP ($3.15 billion) since mid-October, suggesting long-term confidence. Additionally, a bullish RSI divergence has emerged, mirroring conditions seen at the 2022 market bottom. Analyst EL0N_T3SLA notes that a breakout above $2.60 could propel XRP toward $4 before year-end.

Strategic Implications for Investors

The battle for $1.90 will determine XRP's near-term trajectory. A clean break above this level would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the path to $2.00 and $2.20. Conversely, a sustained move below $1.81 could accelerate the descent toward $1.10. Investors must also monitor broader market conditions: if Bitcoin fails to break above $88,000, altcoins like XRP could face further downward pressure.

For those with a longer-term horizon, AI models project divergent outcomes. ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude suggest XRP could trade in the $6–$14 range if ETF inflows hit $10 billion by late 2026, though this depends on Ripple's adoption of on-demand liquidity solutions.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for XRP

XRP stands at a crossroads. The bearish case, anchored in technical breakdowns and on-chain selling pressure, warns of a potential 60% decline to $0.80. However, bullish Elliott Wave patterns and whale accumulation hint at a possible reversal. Investors should adopt a cautious stance, using $1.90 as a key decision point. A decisive close above this level could reignite bullish momentum, while a sustained breakdown would validate the bearish thesis. As always, volume and broader market sentiment will be critical in determining XRP's next move.