XRP's Convergence of Technical and On-Chain Bearish Signals: Is a Drop to $2 Imminent?
Technical Analysis: A Bearish Tapestry
XRP's price chart in October 2025 reveals a classic bearish setup. The asset is forming a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart, marked by lower highs and equal lows, which historically signals a breakdown toward key support levels, according to a Coinotag report. The $2.3 threshold is the immediate target, with a potential slide to $2 if liquidity dries up.
The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart further reinforce the bearish bias. XRP remains compressed near the lower band, with the 20-day moving average at $2.54 acting as a critical resistance. A failure to reclaim this level could trigger a cascade to $2.09, the next support zone, as Coinotag's analysis suggests. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lingered in oversold territory for weeks, but this has failed to attract buyers-a red flag for momentum traders.
A bullish reversal would require a decisive break above $2.8, piercing a historical supply imbalance between $2.5 and $2.77, as the Coinotag piece previously noted. However, the lack of volume during recent rallies suggests weak conviction among buyers.
On-Chain Signals: Whales and Selling Pressure
On-chain data paints an equally grim picture. A massive $62.64 million XRP transfer to Binance on October 13, 2025, triggered by an unknown whale, has intensified fears of institutional selling, according to a Finbold report. This movement occurred as XRP traded near $2.50, a level already under pressure from broader market weakness. Analysts note that such large transfers often precede price declines, as Finbold observed.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric tracking whether transactions are profitable, hit 0.95 in late October-a level historically associated with capitulation and rebounds, as Coinotag noted. While this suggests short-term exhaustion among retail holders, the absence of follow-through buying has left the market vulnerable to further selloffs.
Whale activity has also turned cautious. Wallets holding 100,000 to 10 million XRP have shown minimal movement since mid-October, indicating a wait-and-see approach as the $1 billion XRP treasury initiative gains traction, Coinotag reported. However, this silence could backfire if smaller holders panic-sell, accelerating the descent toward $2.
Broader Risks: Regulation and Institutional Shifts
Regulatory delays continue to weigh on XRP's prospects. The SEC's stalled ETF approvals have left investors in limbo, while Western Union's shift to SolanaSOL-- for its USDPT stablecoin underscores XRP's waning institutional appeal, as CoinEdition reported. Solana's speed and low fees have made it a more attractive option for cross-border payments, diluting XRP's use case in a critical sector.
Ripple's treasury initiative, backed by SBI and co-founder Chris Larsen, aims to counter this narrative by boosting real-world utility. However, the market has yet to price in these developments, with XRP's price remaining trapped in a bearish consolidation phase.
Conclusion: A $2 Scenario Remains Plausible
The convergence of technical and on-chain bearish signals-coupled with regulatory and institutional headwinds-makes a $2 scenario highly plausible in the short term. While a rebound is not impossible, it would require a coordinated effort from bulls to break above $2.8 and absorb the massive supply imbalance above $2.5. Until then, XRP remains a high-risk asset for short-term investors.
For now, the path of least resistance is downward. Traders should monitor the $2.3 support level closely, as a breakdown could trigger a rapid descent to $2.
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