XRP's On-Chain Surge Hints at Long-Term Bullish Breakout

XRP is showing renewed signs of bullish momentum, with analysts and on-chain data suggesting the asset could see a significant price increase in the coming weeks. Recent price action indicates that XRP is breaking out of a long-standing consolidation pattern, and institutional demand and derivatives trading activity are contributing to the uptrend. According to CoinShares, XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded inflows of $14.7 million for the week ending Sept. 5, bringing their total inflows for 2025 to $1.4 billion. This contrasts with net outflows seen in Ether (ETH) and reflects a possible reallocation of capital into XRP.

On-chain metrics further support a bullish case for XRP. Open interest (OI) for XRP derivatives has increased by 11% over the past seven days, reaching $8.3 billion, while the funding rate for perpetual futures contracts has remained positive since Aug. 1. These metrics indicate a growing number of traders are taking long positions, betting on a price increase. The OI-weighted funding rate has also been rising steadily over the past 10 days, signaling increased speculative activity.

Technical analysis is also reinforcing optimism around XRP’s price trajectory. The asset has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern since mid-July, and it recently broke out of this range with a daily close above the upper boundary at $2.95. Analysts have identified key resistance levels, including $3.08 and $3.27, which could be tested in the coming weeks. Beyond these levels, Fibonacci extensions suggest a potential price target of $4.50 as a long-term breakout target.

On the four-hour chart, XRP has also formed an ascending triangle pattern, with analysts like Egrag Crypto suggesting a measured price target of $3.12 as long as the support level at $2.97 holds. A confirmed close above $3 would open the door for further gains to $3.15 and potentially $3.40. Some analysts, citing Elliot Wave analysis, have even posited more ambitious targets, with XRP potentially reaching $20 in the current cycle.

XRP’s current market structure suggests it is in a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakout. Daily trading volumes have surpassed 3.52 billion, and the market capitalization stands at $170.76 billion. The convergence of the 50-day and 200-day EMA at $2.82 and $2.88, respectively, indicates increasing buying pressure. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 58, suggesting that XRP has room for further gains before reaching overbought conditions.

On-chain accumulation trends have also bolstered investor confidence. Over the past month, investors have acquired approximately 1.7 million XRP tokens—the highest net position change in nearly two years. This suggests growing long-term interest in the asset and could provide further upward momentum as the market tests key resistance levels. Analysts remain cautious, however, as the NVT ratio has reached a two-month high, which can sometimes precede short-term corrections.

Key levels to monitor for XRP include support at $2.76, $2.70, and $2.63, as well as resistance at $2.95 and $3.04. A successful breakout above $2.95 could trigger a move toward $3.04 and beyond, potentially setting the stage for a retest of the $3.66 multi-year high. However, a failure to maintain support above $2.90 could result in a pullback to $2.75 or lower.

In summary, XRP is in a critical phase, with both on-chain data and technical indicators pointing to a potential rally. If bulls maintain control and the price sustains above key moving averages, the path to $3.50 and beyond could become more accessible. Investors and traders are advised to closely monitor daily price action and volume trends for confirmation of a sustained bullish move.