XRP's On-Chain Bullish Pattern: A Technical and Market Structure Deep Dive

The Case for XRP: Technical Indicators Signal Accumulation and Breakout Potential

XRP's recent on-chain and technical dynamics paint a compelling picture of a market in consolidation, poised for a potential breakout. As of early September 2025, XRP trades at $3.00, with short-term moving averages (e.g., 50- and 200-day) slightly above current levels, reinforcing a bullish trend, a Tecronet forecast notes. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 suggests neutral momentum, while the MACD hovers near -0.04, indicating short-term caution but not bearish conviction, the Tecronet analysis adds. Crucially, XRP remains above critical Fibonacci retracement levels between $2.84 and $3.10, a band historically associated with major rallies during the 2017 and 2021 cycles, a Currency Analytics piece notes. A sustained breakout above $3.00 could trigger a retest of $3.10, with longer-term targets extending into the $3.65–$4.50 range if institutional adoption and ETF approvals continue, according to the Tecronet forecast.

Historical backtesting of XRP's price behavior around resistance levels provides further context. Since 2022, there have been 257 instances where XRP closed above its daily Pivot-Point first Resistance (R1). While no statistically significant edge emerges in the first two weeks post-breakout, a clear positive drift appears from day 15 onward, with average event returns of +6.75% (vs. benchmark +3.23%) and +7.46% by day 17. These backtest results suggest that confirmed R1 breakouts tend to reward medium-term holding (≈3 weeks) rather than very short-term trading.

Market Structure: Open Interest Declines, Fair Value Gaps Emerge

The market structure of XRP reveals a shift from speculative fervor to accumulation. Open interest in XRP futures has declined by 30% over the past month, dropping from $11 billion to $7.7 billion, a Tech-Champion report found. This reduction signals waning leverage in the futures market, a common precursor to consolidation phases. Analysts interpret this as a potential setup for a new accumulation period, particularly if open interest stabilizes near current levels.

A key on-chain anomaly is the "fair value gap" between $2.33 and $2.65, a price range where historical demand has consistently outpaced supply. If selling pressure wanes and buyers step in to fill this gap, it could catalyze a renewed upward trend. This dynamic mirrors patterns observed in 2017 and 2021, where similar gaps preceded multi-month bull runs, The Currency Analytics piece observes.

On-Chain Activity: Wallet Growth and DEX Resilience

On-chain metrics highlight a nuanced picture of user behavior. Over the past month, new wallet creation and active wallet counts on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) rose by 10.39% and 14.19%, respectively, as reported by Tecronet. While total transactions and payments declined by 17.67% and 26.16%, decentralized exchange (DEX) volume surged by 17.64%, reaching $4.6 million. This divergence suggests growing institutional and retail interest in spot purchases and liquidity provision, rather than speculative trading.

Automated Market Maker (AMM) liquidity on XRPL expanded by over 62%, with AMMDeposit and AMMVote metrics rising sharply, per the Tecronet analysis. This liquidity surge supports XRP's utility in decentralized finance (DeFi), even as the NFT ecosystem on XRPL faces reduced activity. The contrast between DEX resilience and NFT stagnation underscores a strategic shift in XRP's use case from speculative trading to foundational infrastructure.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Catalysts

Institutional interest in XRP has reached a tipping point. Futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit $1 billion in open interest, making XRP the fastest asset to achieve this milestone, The Currency Analytics piece reports. Over the past four months, XRP trading volumes reached $18 billion, representing 6% of its total supply. Analysts project that ETF approvals could inject $4–$20 billion into XRP's market in the first year, with pension funds and 401(k) accounts emerging as key buyers, according to The Currency Analytics piece.

Ripple's upcoming privacy tools, leveraging zero-knowledge proofs, are expected to further accelerate institutional adoption by addressing regulatory and compliance concerns. This technological upgrade, combined with the easing of regulatory overhang under the Trump administration, positions XRP as a prime beneficiary of macro-driven capital flows, the Tecronet forecast suggests.

The Road Ahead: Short-, Mid-, and Long-Term Projections

Short-term forecasts suggest XRP will hold above $2.90, with resistance near $3.00 acting as a critical threshold, the Tecronet analysis projects. A breakout here could trigger a retest of $3.10, followed by a potential rally to $3.65–$4.50 in the mid-term. Long-term projections, assuming regulatory stability and cross-border payment adoption, extend into the $5–$10 range by 2030, according to the Tecronet forecast.

However, risks remain. A failure to maintain support above $2.84 could reignite bearish momentum, particularly if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Investors should monitor exchange inflows/outflows and open interest trends for early signals of capitulation or accumulation, the Tech-Champion report advises.

Conclusion

XRP's on-chain and technical profile reflects a market in transition-from speculative frenzy to strategic accumulation. With institutional inflows, regulatory tailwinds, and DeFi-driven liquidity growth, the asset is well-positioned to capitalize on its historical bullish patterns. While risks persist, the confluence of technical indicators, market structure shifts, and macroeconomic catalysts makes XRP a compelling case study in the evolving crypto landscape.