¿Por qué la carrera alcista de XRP aún no ha terminado en 2026?

The XRP price narrative in 2026 is poised to diverge sharply from the cyclical bear markets of the past, driven by a confluence of institutional validation, regulatory tailwinds, and technical momentum. While skeptics point to short-term volatility and macroeconomic headwinds, the underlying fundamentals suggest a structural shift is underway. This analysis synthesizes key signals-Egrag Crypto's bullish chart patterns, Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin trust filing, and the potential Basel III reclassification of XRP-to argue that XRP's bull run is far from over.

Technical Momentum: A Mid-Cycle Reset, Not a Bear Market

Egrag Crypto's late 2025 analysis of XRP underscores a critical distinction: the current price action reflects a mid-cycle reset rather than the onset of a bear market. By flipping the 1-month inverted chart, Egrag identifies a bullish setup reminiscent of historical cycles, where breaking key resistance levels (e.g., $2) has historically triggered exponential gains. For instance, the 2017 rally from $0.028 to $3.31 followed a similar pattern. In 2026, a sustained break above $2.30 could open a path to $3.10–$3.30, with longer-term targets of $27 and $150 contingent on institutional adoption.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further reinforces this thesis. Unlike previous cycles, XRP's RSI has broken below its moving average without an immediate bounce, signaling a meaningful momentum shift. However, as long as the RSI remains above the 44–50 support zone-a historically critical level-bullish probabilities remain intact. Egrag assigns a 55–60% chance of a mid-cycle reset, where XRP stabilizes above its 21-month EMA and reclaims its moving average. This would validate a $24–$30 price range within 6–18 months, with a 60–65% probability of success.

Institutional Validation: From ETF Inflows to Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust

XRP's institutional adoption is accelerating, fueled by regulatory clarity and growing demand for regulated exposure. Post-SEC settlement in August 2025, XRP re-listed on major exchanges, unlocking access to institutional capital. This trend is mirrored in the broader crypto market, where Morgan Stanley's recent filing for a Bitcoin Trust highlights the sector's maturation. The trust, structured to hold actual Bitcoin and provide investors with price performance exposure, reflects a broader shift as Wall Street institutions rush to create on-ramps for traditional investors.

While Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust does not directly include XRP, its filing signals a paradigm shift in how legacy institutions view digital assets. The success of spot Bitcoin ETFs since early 2024 has demonstrated the viability of regulated crypto products, setting a precedent for XRP's institutional validation. As institutional demand for XRP ETFs grows- currently holding $1.18 billion in assets-the asset's liquidity and price stability will improve, further attracting accredited investors.

Regulatory Tailwinds: Basel III Reclassification and XRP's Institutional Legitimacy

A critical catalyst for XRP's 2026 trajectory is the potential reclassification under Basel III rules. Currently, banks are restricted from holding XRP due to its classification as a "non-cash asset," which imposes higher capital requirements. However, reclassifying XRP as a "cash equivalent" would align it with other stablecoins and reduce regulatory friction, enabling banks to custody and trade the asset freely. This change, if enacted, would unlock a new wave of institutional demand, particularly from large custodians and asset managers seeking diversified crypto exposure.

The timing of this reclassification is strategic. As Morgan Stanley and peers normalize crypto ETFs, regulators are under pressure to harmonize rules across digital assets. XRP's post-SEC settlement clarity positions it as a prime candidate for reclassification, further solidifying its status as an institutional-grade asset.

Conclusion: A Convergence of Forces

XRP's 2026 bull case rests on three pillars: technical momentum suggesting a mid-cycle reset, institutional adoption driven by ETF inflows and Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust, and regulatory tailwinds from Basel III reclassification. While short-term volatility remains a risk- particularly if RSI fails to reclaim its moving average-the broader trend points to a structural shift. For investors, the key is to monitor XRP's performance against its 21-month EMA and institutional adoption metrics. If these signals hold, XRP's journey to $27 or even $150 is not just plausible-it's inevitable.