El potencial de salto de precios de XRP en 2026: ¿Podrán el impulso institucional y la fuerza dentro de la cadena de bloques llevar a XRP a valores de 2.40 dólares o incluso más?

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is at a critical inflection point in late 2025, where institutional adoption and on-chain dynamics are converging to create a unique setup for a potential breakout in 2026. With spot ETFs absorbing over $1.3 billion in inflows since November 2025 and exchange-held balances collapsing to seven-year lows, XRP is transitioning from speculative retail-driven narratives to a more structured, institutionally backed asset class. However, the question remains: Can this institutional momentum, combined with improving on-chain fundamentals, propel XRP to $2.40 and beyond?

Institutional Adoption: A New Paradigm for XRP

The surge in institutional demand for XRP has been unprecedented. Spot ETFs, now a cornerstone of the token's adoption, have absorbed $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows since their launch in November 2025, creating a regulated vacuum that has reduced circulating supply and signaled the arrival of "new money" into the XRP market. This demand has been so robust that exchange-held balances-particularly on platforms like Binance and Upbit-have plummeted to 2.6 billion tokens, a level not seen since 2018. The reduction in exchange liquidity suggests a shift toward self-custody and long-term positioning, a hallmark of accumulation phases in asset cycles.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, where ETF inflows have been volatile and often tied to short-term price swings, XRP's institutional adoption has shown remarkable resilience. Even as the token's price fell 15% in December 2025, ETF inflows continued unabated, indicating a focus on long-term value rather than immediate price action. This divergence is further amplified by the fact that XRP ETF inflows are evenly distributed across multiple issuers, including Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Bitwise, suggesting coordinated institutional participation.

On-Chain Metrics: A Tale of Two Realities

While institutional adoption is robust, on-chain activity for the XRPL has lagged. Total Value Locked (TVL) remains at a meager $72.76 million, and daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes have fallen to $86,000, with active traders dropping from 27,900 to 16,700 in December 2025. This disconnect between institutional demand and on-chain utility raises concerns about XRP's ability to justify its valuation through organic network activity.

However, there are early signs of improvement. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio-a key metric for assessing blockchain valuation efficiency-has dropped to 1.26, a level historically associated with dip-buying interest and undervaluation. This decline suggests that transactional activity is beginning to catch up with XRP's market capitalization, a critical step toward aligning technical and fundamental indicators. Additionally, whale deposits to exchanges have declined, signaling reduced selling pressure and a shift toward accumulation.

The XRP Ledger's infrastructure is also showing promise. Partnerships like the Evernorth-Doppler collaboration aim to enhance treasury management and institutional liquidity on the XRPL, targeting traditional finance infrastructure. If successful, these initiatives could drive liquidity and usage back onto the XRP Ledger, bridging the gap between institutional adoption and on-chain utility.

Technical Analysis: A Consolidation Play with Breakout Potential

From a technical perspective, XRP is in a classic accumulation phase. The token has been consolidating between $1.88 and $2.10 for 393 days, a period that mirrors the 2016–2017 consolidation phase before a 6,500% surge from $0.006 to $3.84. This prolonged sideways movement reflects a balance between supply and demand, with key support at $1.88 holding firm.

Technical indicators reinforce the case for a breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral line, suggesting continued consolidation, while the NVT ratio's decline to 1.26 hints at improving value efficiency. Momentum is also building as XRP tests resistance levels between $2.40 and $2.60, with a potential move toward $2.70 if the $2.40 level is breached.

Historical parallels further strengthen the case. In December 2017, XRP surged 1,200% after a 18-month consolidation phase, and in November 2024, it rallied 580% following regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. The current setup, while driven by different factors (e.g., ETFs and RLUSD adoption), shares structural similarities with these past breakouts.

The Path to $2.40: Convergence of Fundamentals and Technicals

For XRP to reach $2.40 and beyond, the convergence of institutional adoption and on-chain activity is critical. The recent $46.1 million in ETF inflows in December 2025 has tightened supply dynamics, reducing exchange-held balances to 1.6 billion tokens and creating a scarcity-driven tailwind. This supply contraction, combined with improving infrastructure adoption (e.g., RLUSD liquidity and cross-border payment use cases), could catalyze a price breakout once on-chain activity aligns with institutional demand.

However, risks remain. If on-chain activity fails to materialize, XRP could remain a speculative vehicle rather than a transformative blockchain asset. The success of initiatives like Evernorth-Doppler and the broader adoption of RLUSD on the XRPL will be pivotal in determining whether XRP's valuation is justified by fundamentals or remains a function of institutional "wrapper" trades.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Play for 2026

XRP's 2026 trajectory hinges on the successful conversion of institutional momentum into on-chain utility. With ETF inflows outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum, a favorable NVT profile, and historical parallels to past breakouts, the case for a $2.40 target is compelling. However, investors must remain vigilant about the need for increased network activity to validate the token's valuation. If the XRPL can bridge the gap between institutional adoption and on-chain innovation, XRP could emerge as one of the most compelling macro-driven assets in 2026.