Is XRP Approaching a Critical Support Floor Amid Deepening On-Chain Weakness?

The XRP price narrative in late 2025 is a tale of two forces: technical fragility and on-chain resilience. While the token trades near $2.17, a critical support level at $2.15 looms as a pivotal psychological and structural threshold. This level, identified by technical analyst Ali Martinez, represents a potential floor for XRP's price action, but its defense is far from guaranteed given the broader on-chain dynamics.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Pressure and Oversold Proximity

XRP's Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 35, signaling bearish momentum but inching toward oversold territory. Historically, RSI levels below 30 have acted as catalysts for short-term rebounds, but XRP's path to recovery is complicated by its proximity to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which has functioned as formidable resistance. If XRP fails to break above this EMA, it risks reinforcing a bearish bias, with a breakdown below $2.15 potentially triggering a cascade of selling pressure toward the year-to-date low of $1.7676.

However, the market structure suggests a nuanced outlook. Glassnode's analysis highlights that 41.5% of XRP's supply remains in a loss position, despite the token's fourfold rally from November 2024's $0.53 level. This "top-heavy" distribution-where late buyers dominate-creates a fragile equilibrium. A successful defense of $2.15 could rekindle bullish sentiment, with price targets of $2.40 to $2.70 in play.

On-Chain Metrics: Contradictory Signals and Structural Strength

On-chain data paints a mixed picture. Daily payment volumes have dipped below the critical 1 billion XRP threshold to 903 million, while transactions per day have fallen to 1.98 million, reflecting reduced network utility. Yet, other metrics suggest underlying strength. Active XRP addresses have hit a three-month high, signaling increased engagement, and the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has dropped to 108.56-a level historically associated with undervaluation.

Exchange inflows further complicate the narrative. Despite a $1.17 billion outflow in the broader crypto market, XRP has attracted $28.2 million in weekly inflows, with $2.0 billion in year-to-date inflows. This divergence underscores XRP's unique positioning in cross-border payments and institutional adoption, which may insulate it from speculative outflows.

Accumulation/Distribution Dynamics: Whales and the MVRV Signal

Large holder activity reveals a tug-of-war between accumulation and profit-taking. Over the past four days, 716 whale transactions exceeding $1 million each have pushed $768 million into XRP, signaling strategic positioning. Conversely, long-term holders have taken profits at a 240% increase, realizing $470 million in losses as prices dipped below $2.50. The sharp decline in whale-to-exchange transfers-from 49,000 in late October to under 1,000-suggests reduced selling pressure and a shift toward long-term storage.

Meanwhile, XRP's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a "golden cross," where the ratio crosses above its 30-day moving average. This pattern has historically preceded a 630% price surge, offering a compelling bullish signal. However, the current price near $2.17 must hold above $2.15 to validate this optimism.

Risk Mitigation and Entry Timing

For investors, the key lies in balancing risk and reward. A stop-loss below $2.15 would be prudent to mitigate downside exposure, while a breakout above the 200-day EMA could signal a shift in momentum. On-chain watchers should monitor volume recovery and NVT trends: if transaction volume rebounds to $1 billion and NVT stabilizes above 100, it could validate XRP's structural strength.

Entry opportunities may emerge if XRP consolidates near $2.15 with rising active addresses and whale accumulation. However, a breakdown below $2.15 would likely force a reevaluation of the risk-reward profile, with $1.7676 as a critical floor to watch.

Conclusion

XRP's current juncture is a microcosm of broader crypto market dynamics: technical fragility coexists with on-chain resilience. While the $2.15 support level is a critical battleground, the interplay of whale activity, NVT trends, and regulatory clarity will ultimately determine whether XRP transitions from a bearish correction to a sustained bullish phase. For now, patience and disciplined risk management remain paramount.