El objetivo de 3 dólares para el XRP: ¿Es esta recuperación una oportunidad de “comprar en base a las noticias”, o una señal para vender?

The recent surge in XRP is a textbook "buy the rumor" event. The market priced in a powerful catalyst-the structural supply crunch from institutional ETF inflows-and the rally was the immediate reaction. The setup is clear: a 25% jump in the first week of 2026, lifting the price from a December low near $1.77 to a peak of approximately $2.40, has now left the stock testing whether that narrative is sufficient for a new leg higher.

The catalyst was specific and measurable. Since the spot ETFs launched late last year, they have absorbed $1.3 billion in assets in just 50 days, with a streak of 43 consecutive days of inflows and no outflows. This massive institutional demand has directly compressed the available supply, as exchange balances dropped 57% from 4 billion XRP to 1.7 billion in 2025. The market's expectation was that this would create a lasting scarcity, driving the price higher once the initial buying frenzy settled.

Yet the rally itself reveals the expectation gap. The token's 25% pop in early January is a classic "buy the rumor" move, where the price spikes on the news of the ETF success and supply drop. Now, with XRP trading around $2.30, it's testing whether the market's priced-in optimism is enough to push it beyond the recent high. The context is critical: even after this rally, XRP remains 37% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. This gap suggests there is still room for a "beat and raise" narrative, where continued ETF inflows and further supply reduction could reset expectations upward. The current price action is the market's first real test of that potential.

The Expectation Gap: What's Priced In vs. What's Real

The market is now facing a stark divergence between two realities. The institutional "wrapper" trade, built on ETF inflows and supply removal, is thriving. Yet the underlying on-chain economy is fading, creating a classic setup where financial demand is decoupling from real utility. This gap is the core of the current expectation arbitrage.

On one side, the fundamentals for a supply squeeze are clear. Spot ETFs have pulled in roughly $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows since launch, with exchange reserves hitting a multi-year low of 1.6 billion tokens. This structural tightening is the priced-in tailwind that drove the initial rally. The resolution of the SEC lawsuit in August 2025 removed a massive overhang, and that clarity is now baked into the price. The market has already "bought the rumor" of regulatory safety.

On the other side, the network's utility is under pressure. While Wall Street deepens its footprint, the on-chain economy is flashing warning signs. Activity metrics are fading, indicating a hollowed-out utility layer. This is where the expectation gap widens. The rally is being fueled by institutional capital, but the network itself is struggling to retain liquidity and users. In other words, the asset is being traded, but the ledger is becoming less active.

A key risk to the bullish narrative is the behavior of early investors. They have already realized substantial gains, using the liquidity provided by ETFs to exit. Data shows that early investors have realized $721 million in gains from the recent price move. This is a direct mechanism for capping rallies regardless of long-term fundamentals. When the initial wave of institutional buying meets a wave of profit-taking from early adopters, it creates a natural ceiling.

The bottom line is that the market has priced in a powerful catalyst-the supply crunch and regulatory clarity. The current price action is testing whether that narrative is sufficient for a new leg higher, or if the fading on-chain activity and profit-taking from early investors will act as a brake. The setup now hinges on whether ETF inflows can continue to outpace this exit pressure, or if the market is due for a "sell the news" correction.

Sentiment and the $3 Target: A Whisper Number or a Guidance Reset?

The market's current mood is a critical filter for the $3 target. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 46, a neutral reading. This is a key signal: the market is not yet in "extreme greed." That absence of euphoria could cap a rapid, speculative run to $3, as there is little excess momentum to fuel a parabolic move. It suggests the rally has been more measured, perhaps reflecting a wait-and-see stance on whether the ETF narrative can be sustained.

Analyst views on the $3 target reveal a clear expectation gap. Some see it as a near-term, achievable milestone. One analyst predicts XRP will hit at least $3 at some point in 2026, framing it as a logical retest of prior highs. Others, however, treat $3 as a baseline and point to a more ambitious "credibility shock" level. The broader narrative suggests that reaching $4 requires a BlackRock XRP ETF filing credibility shock and other major catalysts. This contrast shows that while $3 may be a whisper number already being priced in, the path to $4 is seen as requiring a new, more powerful catalyst to reset expectations fully.

The math for hitting $3 is straightforward but demanding. The token must lock up another 750-1,250 million XRP by mid-year to maintain the supply crunch thesis. Achieving that requires a sustained monthly ETF inflow of $300-500 million. This is the specific guidance reset needed. If inflows slow or stall, the supply narrative weakens, and the $3 target becomes a distant possibility. The current neutral sentiment means the market is not betting heavily on this outcome yet. The setup is now one of patience: the $3 target is within reach if the ETF engine keeps running, but it is not yet priced in with conviction. The real test will be whether the market's neutral stance can shift to greed as the monthly inflow data confirms the supply lock-up is on track.

Catalysts and Risks: What Could Trigger a "Guidance Reset"?

The path to $3-and beyond-is now a binary test of execution versus expectation. The market has priced in the initial supply crunch, but a sustained move higher requires a new, more powerful catalyst to reset the narrative. The specific math is clear: locking up another 750 to 1,250 million XRP by mid-year would require a steady monthly ETF inflow of $300 to $500 million. This is the concrete guidance reset needed to strengthen the scarcity thesis and justify a re-rating.

The most immediate risk to this plan is legislative delay. The 2025 government shutdown killed hopes for crypto legislation, and any similar political gridlock in 2026 could stall the Market Structure Bill. That bill is a key credibility signal for institutional adoption, and its passage is a prerequisite for the broader regulatory legitimacy that could fuel a $4 move. Without it, the ETF narrative faces a ceiling.

For the $4 target, the market needs a "credibility shock." That could come from a major issuer like BlackRock filing for an XRP ETF, which would validate the asset's institutional standing. Alternatively, significant scaling of the RLUSD stablecoin for banking rails could demonstrate real utility, providing a fundamental counterweight to the supply story. These are not incremental steps; they are potential game-changers that could abruptly widen the expectation gap in the bullish direction.

On the flip side, the primary risk is a "risk-off" unwind triggered by large holders selling at resistance. Early investors have already realized $721 million in gains from the recent rally, creating a natural ceiling. If ETF inflows slow or stall, meeting the $300-500 million monthly target becomes harder, and profit-taking could accelerate. The current neutral sentiment means there is little excess momentum to absorb such a shock, making the market vulnerable to a swift reset. The setup is now one of patience: the $3 target is within reach if the ETF engine keeps running, but the path to $4 requires a new catalyst to break through the existing ceiling.