XRP's $3.38 Crossroads: South Korean Hype vs. Global Bearish Stakes

XRP’s recent surge in exchange reserves, particularly on South Korea’s Upbit, has sparked renewed debate about its potential to break through the $3.38 price level. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant and CoinGlass, XRP reserves on Upbit surged by $269.22 million in a single 24-hour period, with a record $161.62 million traded in one hour alone. This activity outpaced Binance, where XRP trading volume showed net outflows during the same period, despite Binance’s XRP reserves increasing to 3.538 billion tokens in September. Analysts attribute the Upbit-driven momentum to South Korea’s active retail trading culture and speculative interest in Ripple’s regulatory progress, particularly as the U.S. SEC’s lawsuit against the company nears resolution.

The technical case for a $3.38 breakout hinges on recent price behavior and accumulation patterns. XRP has tested the $2.70 support level multiple times since August, with analysts noting that institutional coordination—evidenced by synchronized reserve increases across Binance, Bithumb, Bybit, and OKX—may signal strategic accumulation rather than immediate sell pressure. CryptoOnchain highlighted that the timing of these inflows coincided with XRP testing its key support, a pattern historically associated with bullish reversals. Additionally, momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD show reduced selling pressure, suggesting that exchange buying could delay market impact until a critical price level is breachedWhy Rising Exchange Reserves May Not Be Bearish for XRP Price^[1].

Upbit’s dominance in XRP trading has further intensified speculation. The exchange reported $500 million in XRP trading volume in July, surpassing Bitcoin and Ethereum on the platform. This surge was driven by large-scale whale activity, with wallets accumulating over 11 million XRP, and speculation about a potential XRP ETF. South Korean traders, who account for 14.37% of global XRP trading volume, appear to be capitalizing on the token’s low fees and real-world utility in cross-border payments, a niche where XRP has long held an advantage.

Market analysts remain divided on the sustainability of this rally. While some, like MEXC’s Shawn Young, argue that a favorable SEC decision on XRP ETFs could propel the token to $3.40 and beyond, others caution that a drop below $2.70 would invalidate the bullish narrative. Greg Miller of BeInCrypto warned that Binance’s record XRP reserves signal bearish momentum, with a near-term recovery to $3.00 deemed unlikely. However, TWC CEO Christopher Inks emphasized that a close above $3.38 would confirm the end of XRP’s correction phase, flipping Fibonacci levels into support and potentially unlocking targets at $3.58 and $3.66XRP Faces Key Resistance at $3.38, CEO of TWC Says It’s a …^[4].

The interplay between South Korean retail demand and global institutional sentiment remains pivotal. XRP’s price action in recent weeks has mirrored regional trading dynamics, with Upbit’s inflows coinciding with a 3.95% weekly gain to $3.13. Technical analysis from blockchain news platforms suggests that a breakout above $3.38 could trigger a rally toward $3.50, with further upside contingent on maintaining support above $2.93. Conversely, a failure to hold $3.05 could reintroduce bearish pressure, pushing XRP back toward the $2.70–$2.90 rangeXRP Hits $3.02 as Bulls Target Breakout Toward $3.38 Next^[6].

As the market awaits regulatory clarity and ETF approvals, XRP’s performance underscores the growing influence of regional trading hubs like South Korea. With Upbit now holding twice as much XRP as Binance and accounting for 12.21% of global XRP trading volume, the token’s trajectory may increasingly reflect Asian market sentiment. Whether this momentum translates into a sustained rally past $3.38 will depend on the balance between accumulation efforts and selling pressure from large holders, as well as broader macroeconomic factors affecting crypto markets.