El objetivo de precio para el XRP en 2026, de 8 dólares: ¿Es realista la perspectiva alcista de Standard Chartered?

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, but few narratives have captured institutional and retail attention as persistently as XRP's. With Standard Chartered recently setting a $8 price target for XRP by 2026-a 330% increase from its current price-the question looms: Is this bullish case realistic? To evaluate this, we must dissect the interplay of three critical factors: regulatory clarity post-SEC vs. Ripple, surging XRP ETF inflows, and the XRP Ledger's growing utility.

Regulatory Clarity: A Foundation for Institutional Confidence

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) long-standing lawsuit against Ripple Labs, which began in 2020, reached a definitive conclusion in December 2025. Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security when sold on public exchanges, though institutional sales were classified as such. Ripple agreed to a $50 million settlement, significantly lower than the SEC's initial $125 million demand, and secured a permanent injunction to prevent further U.S. institutional sales.

This outcome provided unprecedented regulatory clarity, allowing U.S. exchanges to relist XRP and catalyzing a market recovery. XRP's price surged from $0.5 to over $3.65 in July 2025, reflecting renewed investor confidence. The ruling also set a precedent for classifying digital assets, signaling a more structured regulatory environment under the 2025 SEC leadership. For Standard Chartered's $8 target to materialize, sustained regulatory stability is essential. However, the court's nuanced distinction between public and institutional transactions introduces lingering risks, particularly if enforcement actions resurface.

ETF Inflows: A Double-Edged Sword

The launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs in November 2025 marked a watershed moment. By early 2026, these funds had attracted $1.3 billion in assets under management (AUM) within 50 days, with an average daily inflow of $27.7 million. This rapid adoption mirrors Bitcoin's ETF trajectory and suggests strong institutional demand. At current inflow rates, the $5 billion threshold is projected by mid-2026, locking up 4% of XRP's total supply in ETF custody.

However, the disconnect between inflows and price remains striking. Despite $1.3 billion in ETF inflows, XRP's price peaked at $3.65 in July 2025 and has since retreated to around $1.86, failing to fully reflect institutional adoption. Critics argue that ETF-driven demand is speculative and may not translate to long-term utility-driven growth. Furthermore, XRP's massive circulating supply-over 50 billion tokens-means even substantial inflows could be easily absorbed without significant price appreciation.

XRP Ledger Utility: The Unsung Catalyst

While ETFs dominate headlines, the XRP Ledger's (XRPL) real-world utility is a quieter but arguably more durable driver of value. In 2025, XRPL processed 2 million daily transactions, with daily active sender addresses reaching 25,300. Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service, which uses XRP for cross-border payments, processed $95 billion in 2025, up from $15 billion in 2024, with 56% of volume concentrated in Asia-Pacific corridors.

Partnerships with Mastercard, WebBank, and Gemini have further embedded XRP into financial infrastructure. Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin, now valued at $1.3 billion, is being used for cross-border credit card settlements, creating a symbiotic relationship with XRP-RLUSD transactions require XRP for fee payments and bridging. This utility-driven demand contrasts with ETF speculation, offering a more sustainable path to price appreciation.

Standard Chartered's $8 target hinges on the assumption that XRP's utility will scale alongside ETF inflows. However, the token's current market cap of $93 billion (as of December 2025) implies a $349 billion increase to reach $8, a feat that would require exponential growth in both transaction volume and institutional adoption.

The Interplay: Can These Forces Align?

Standard Chartered's bullish case rests on a perfect storm of regulatory clarity, ETF-driven demand, and utility expansion. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, models a $4–8 billion inflow scenario for 2026, arguing that XRP's fixed supply will create upward pressure. This thesis assumes continued ETF growth, a BlackRock-style blockbuster ETF launch, and macroeconomic stability to avoid a broader crypto downturn.

Yet skepticism persists. XRP's historical underperformance-despite favorable developments-raises questions about its ability to sustain momentum. Technical indicators remain weak, and the token's large supply could dilute demand even with robust inflows. Additionally, the SEC's revised guidance, while more structured, still leaves room for regulatory ambiguity, particularly regarding stablecoins and cross-border transactions.

Conclusion: A Realistic Target, But With Caveats

Standard Chartered's $8 price target for XRP by 2026 is ambitious but not implausible. The convergence of regulatory clarity, ETF inflows, and growing utility creates a compelling narrative. However, the target's feasibility depends on three critical conditions:
1. Regulatory stability to prevent a relapse into enforcement actions.
2. Sustained ETF inflows that outpace supply-side dilution.
3. Exponential growth in XRP Ledger adoption, particularly in cross-border payments and stablecoin ecosystems.

While the $8 target represents a 330% upside, investors must weigh the risks of speculative overvaluation against the potential for utility-driven growth. For now, XRP's journey to $8 remains a high-stakes bet on the alignment of market forces and technological adoption.