XRP's Recent 20% Surge: Is a $10 Price Target Realistic?

In early July 2025, XRP experienced a sharp 20% rally, fueled by a convergence of on-chain accumulation patterns and bullish technical indicators. This surge has reignited debates about XRP's long-term potential, particularly whether a $10 price target is within reach. To assess this, we must dissect the interplay between institutional buying, price action, and market sentiment.

Accumulation Patterns: A Signal of Institutional Confidence

On-chain data reveals a surge in accumulation by large wallet holders, who have added 2.2 billion XRP ($7.1 billion at current prices) in just two weeks. This activity is concentrated at key support levels, notably $3.34, where volume spikes suggest strategic buying. Such patterns are often a precursor to price surges, as seen in Bitcoin's 2020–2021 rally, where whale activity preceded a 200% move.

The accumulation at $3.34 is particularly telling. After a 7.5% intraday selloff in late June, XRP stabilized near this level, demonstrating resilience. Traders now watch $3.47–$3.48 as the next critical resistance, but the token's ability to defend the $3.34–$3.37 zone underscores institutional support. This behavior suggests a “buy the dip” mentality, with large holders locking in supply ahead of potential breakouts.

Technical Indicators: A Bullish Convergence

XRP's recent breakout from a multi-year symmetrical triangle pattern marks a shift from range-bound trading to an uptrend. The 25% weekly gain in late June 2025 confirmed this pattern, with the RSI entering overbought territory (above 60) and the On-Balance Volume (OBV) showing sustained ascent. These signals indicate strong buyer participation, particularly from institutional sources.

The MVRV golden cross—a rare on-chain metric—further validates the bullish case. This indicator suggests XRP is undervalued relative to its realized value, a condition historically linked to parabolic price runs. Additionally, the XRP/BTC pair broke above a 2,200-day resistance, a level that previously signaled major rallies in 2018. A bullish MACD crossover in late June added momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of further gains.

Market Dominance and Historical Parallels

XRP's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has surged, with the XRP.D chart breaking out of a bull pennant on the two-week timeframe. This pattern projects dominance levels between 21% and 275%, a range that could drive price targets to $7–$10 if the $5.75% volume profile threshold is breached. Analysts draw parallels to Bitcoin's 2021 dominance run, where similar patterns preceded a 300% rally.

A critical test lies ahead: a close above $3.84 (XRP's all-time high) would validate the bull pennant, potentially unlocking a 417% move to $20. While this scenario depends on broader market conditions, the current consolidation near $3.45 suggests a setup for renewed momentum.

Risk and Reward: Is $10 Realistic?

Short-term risks include overbought RSI conditions and profit-taking, which could trigger corrections. However, the accumulation patterns and technical signals point to a larger bullish narrative. If XRP sustains above $3.48, the path to $7–$10 becomes increasingly viable, with $10 acting as a psychological milestone.

For long-term investors, the focus should be on XRP's fundamentals: regulatory clarity, institutional adoption (e.g., partnerships with payment processors), and on-chain strength. The token's utility in cross-border payments and its role in decentralized finance (DeFi) projects also provide a strong use-case foundation.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Play

XRP's 20% surge in 2025 is not an isolated event but part of a broader bullish cycle driven by accumulation, technical momentum, and market sentiment. While $10 is a realistic near-term target, the token's potential extends further if the current bullish phase sustains. Investors should monitor key levels ($3.48, $3.84) and on-chain metrics like the MVRV golden cross for confirmation.

In a market where narratives often drive outcomes, XRP's combination of technical strength and institutional backing positions it as a compelling high-conviction play. As always, risk management remains paramount, but for those with a medium-term horizon, the case for XRP is as compelling as it is timely.