XRP's $2.93 Pivotal: Bulls Eye Breakout as Bears Guard Support
XRP has stabilized near $2.80 in late September 2025, with traders closely monitoring key support and resistance levels as the asset consolidates ahead of a potential breakout or breakdown. The price has tested the $2.75–$2.80 range multiple times, with bulls defending this critical area against bearish pressure. On-chain data reveals $8.52 million in net inflows into XRPXRP-- spot markets on September 2, signaling renewed whale participation amid broader market caution [1]. However, descending resistance near $2.93 continues to cap upside momentum, leaving the market divided on whether XRP will retest prior highs or face a deeper retracement.
Technical indicators highlight a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The 4-hour EMA cluster (20 at $2.81, 50 at $2.87, 100 at $2.93, and 200 at $2.96) has acted as a ceiling, suppressing momentum. A decisive close above $2.93 could reignite the uptrend, targeting the $3.35–$3.38 zone—a prior supply cap from July. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.80 risks a retest of $2.60, a level aligned with Fibonacci retracement and horizontal support [1]. The RSI on the 30-minute chart has rebounded to 66, suggesting recovering bullish momentum, though MACD remains bearish-neutral as EMAs constrain upside potential [1].
Fundamental flows provide mixed signals. The launch of the first U.S.-listed XRP ETF, REX-Osprey, generated $37.7 million in initial trading volume, reflecting strong institutional demand but also triggering short-term profit-taking. Meanwhile, Ripple’s partnerships with DBS and Franklin Templeton to tokenize money market funds on the XRP Ledger could drive structural support if adoption accelerates [2]. Active accounts on the XRP Ledger have surpassed 7 million, and daily payments exceed 1 million, reinforcing underlying network growth [2].
Analyst perspectives are diverging. Prominent crypto analyst Steph Crypto has highlighted XRP’s breakout structure, calling 2025 “the hardest bull market ever” and projecting long-term upside into double digits. His Twitter analysis frames repeated breakout cycles since 2022 as precursors to a new rally phase [1]. Conversely, bearish voices caution that the descending trendline and repeated rejections near $3.00 indicate underlying weakness. A breach of $2.60 could accelerate losses toward $2.41 or $2.08, where deeper demand sits [1].
The short-term outlook hinges on whether buyers can reclaim the $2.93 pivot. Sustained closes above this level would signal bullish control, opening the path to $3.35–$3.38 and potentially $3.77. Institutional selling during the ETF debut, however, has left XRP range-bound near $2.83, with technical breakdown signals flashing. A flash crash on September 23 saw the price plummet from $2.87 to $2.77 in 24 hours, erasing $11 billion in market value and testing critical support [3].
XRP’s next move will depend on balancing institutional demand, regulatory clarity, and whale activity. While rising inflows and improving intraday momentum suggest a constructive bias, volatility remains elevated. Traders are cautiously optimistic, viewing current consolidation as accumulation rather than distribution. The outcome of the SEC’s ongoing settlement with Ripple, expected by October, could further shape sentiment, potentially eliminating a major regulatory overhang [5].
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