Is XRP's $1.90 Support Level a Reliable Buy Signal Amid Market Volatility?

The XRP price has been locked in a critical battle around the $1.90 support level in late 2025, a juncture where technical indicators, macroeconomic forces, and regulatory uncertainty converge. For investors, the question of whether this level represents a reliable buy signal requires a nuanced analysis of both on-chain dynamics and broader market conditions.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Foundation

The $1.90 level has historically acted as a psychological and structural floor for XRP, with prior corrections finding support here. However, recent price action suggests fragility. A breakdown below $1.90 in December 2025 confirmed short-term bearish control, with expanded trading volume signaling active distribution rather than passive liquidity drift. This breakdown aligns with a weekly death cross formation, reinforcing the ongoing downtrend.

Bullish catalysts include a TD Sequential buy signal and a bullish RSI divergence, which historically precede reversals during bear market bottoms. The Stochastic RSI, currently in oversold territory with a bullish crossover, further hints at potential near-term reversals if $1.90 holds according to analysis. Yet, the price remains below the 50-day moving average, and institutional selling pressure-evidenced by over 500 million XRP sold by large holders in a single week-complicates the bullish case.

If bulls reclaim $1.90, the next targets are $2.00 (a retest of prior support) and the $2.20–$2.30 resistance cluster as market data shows. A sustained breakout above this range could neutralize the death-cross narrative and validate ETF-driven demand. However, a breakdown to $1.88 would expose deeper support levels at $1.61 and even $1.25, depending on macroeconomic conditions.

The broader macroeconomic landscape remains a double-edged sword. While U.S. spot XRP ETFs have injected $1.01 billion in demand since November 2025, this accounts for just 0.98% of XRP's total market cap, leaving room for further institutional participation. Yet, this inflow occurs against a backdrop of rising inflation and central bank rate cuts, which have dampened risk appetite. The Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate cut, for instance, initially triggered a slump in XRP, though the token showed resilience near $1.90 amid ETF-driven buying.

Regulatory delays further cloud the outlook. The U.S. Senate's postponement of the Crypto Market Structure Bill to early 2026 has prolonged uncertainty, stifling institutional risk-taking and capping upside momentum. Meanwhile, Ripple's ongoing legal battle with the SEC remains unresolved, with a favorable ruling still seen as a potential catalyst for a 32–60% price surge into the $2.50–$3.00 range.

The Interplay of Technical and Macro Forces

The $1.90 level's reliability as a buy signal hinges on the interplay between technical resilience and macroeconomic stability. On-chain data shows ETF inflows tightening exchange-traded supply, but this constructive narrative clashes with a broader risk-off environment. For example, the Bank of Japan's shifting monetary policy and global inflationary pressures have exacerbated XRP's volatility, with liquidity concerns and whale selling amplifying downward momentum.

A key test will be whether XRP can retest $2.00 as support after defending $1.90. If successful, this could trigger a short-term rally toward $2.50, leveraging ETF-driven demand and improved sentiment. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.90 would likely accelerate a move toward $1.64–$1.54, with macroeconomic tailwinds like Fed rate cuts offering limited relief in a bearish scenario.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

While the $1.90 support level presents a compelling technical setup for bulls, its reliability as a buy signal is contingent on macroeconomic and regulatory developments. ETF inflows and real-world adoption (e.g., cross-border payments) offer structural support, but these must overcome headwinds like delayed regulatory clarity and a fragile macroeconomic environment. Investors should treat $1.90 as a conditional entry point, with strict stop-loss levels below $1.88 to mitigate downside risk. In the long term, a favorable legal outcome for Ripple or the passage of the Market Structure Bill could unlock XRP's full potential, but patience and caution remain paramount in the near term.