Xpeng se desploma: cae un 5,6 % a medida que el exceso de I+D se encuentra con la verificación de la realidad: ¿es un espejismo el impulso tecnológico del gigante de los vehículos eléctricos?

Summary
• XPEV tumbles 5.6% to $20.085, its lowest since December 2025
• CEO Xiaopeng He unveils 2026 R&D roadmap amid narrowing Q3 losses
• Options chain shows heavy put buying at $19.5 strike ahead of Q4 update

XPeng Inc. (XPEV) faces a sharp intraday selloff of 5.6% on December 31, 2025, as investors weigh the CEO’s aggressive R&D commitments against the company’s recent financial progress. The stock trades at $20.085, down from a $21.28 previous close, with a day range of $19.86–$20.49. While XPEV’s Q3 net loss narrowed to $54.3M, the market remains skeptical about its long-term Physical AI ambitions and execution risks.

R&D Ambitions Clash with Profitability Pressures
XPeng’s CEO Xiaopeng He announced a 2026 R&D push focused on Physical AI and robotaxi development, positioning the move as a 'brand-new starting point' after years of operational challenges. However, the market reacted negatively to the lack of concrete timelines or revenue drivers for these initiatives. Despite a 49% YoY increase in R&D spending to $2.43B in Q3 and a 69% YTD stock rally, investors are questioning whether the company can balance innovation with profitability. The selloff coincided with a $20.7 price drop (6%) earlier in the day, reflecting broader skepticism about XPEV’s ability to monetize its tech roadmap.

EV Sector Mixed as Tesla (TSLA) Leads with 0.26% Decline
The EV sector remains volatile amid Trump-era tariff uncertainties and shifting consumer demand. Tesla (TSLA), the sector leader, fell 0.26% to $454.12, while NIO (NIO) and Li Auto (LI) declined 8.27% and 4.40%, respectively. XPEV’s 5.6% drop underperformed the Hang Seng Index’s 27.77% YTD gain, highlighting its premium valuation (P/S of 2.35) and high beta (1.05). The sector’s mixed performance underscores investor caution toward EVs’ long-term margins in a high-interest-rate environment.

Options and ETF Plays for XPEV’s Volatile Outlook
• 200-day MA: $20.51 (above current price)
• RSI: 60.99 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.267 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $17.88–$21.26 (current price near lower band)

XPEV’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $19.63 and resistance at $21.51. The stock’s 52W range (11.14–28.24) and -67.25 PE ratio highlight its speculative nature. For options, two contracts stand out:

• XPEV20260109P19
- Put option, strike $19, expires 2026-01-09
- IV: 52.56% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.2338 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0063 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1749 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 21,680 (liquid)
- Why: This put offers leverage (80.56% ratio) for a 5% downside scenario, with a projected payoff of $0.085 (max(0, 19 - 19.0425)).

• XPEV20260109C19.5
- Call option, strike $19.5, expires 2026-01-09
- IV: 41.78% (reasonable)
- Delta: 0.6978 (moderate bullish bias)
- Theta: -0.0786 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2505 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 11,767 (liquid)
- Why: This call balances risk and reward, with a 5% upside payoff of $0.5425 (max(0, 21.08925 - 19.5)).

Action: Aggressive bears may consider XPEV20260109P19 into a breakdown below $19.63. Bulls should watch for a rebound above $21.51 before initiating longs.

Backtest Xpeng Stock Performance
The backtest of XPEV's performance after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable short-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 49.02%, the 10-Day win rate is 45.70%, and the 30-Day win rate is 50.78%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate term following the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 1.79% over 30 days, suggesting that while the stock has shown resilience, the returns have been relatively modest.

XPEV at Crossroads: Tech Hype or Sustainable Growth?
XPEV’s 5.6% drop reflects a critical juncture for the EV sector. While the company’s R&D roadmap and Q3 financial progress (narrowing losses, $20.38B revenue) offer hope, the market demands clearer monetization strategies. Investors should monitor the January 9 options expiration and XPEV’s Q4 delivery report for directional clues. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) remains the sector’s bellwether, down 0.26% as tariff and AI-driven energy concerns linger. For XPEV, a sustained break below $19.63 could trigger deeper selloffs, while a rebound above $21.51 may reignite bullish momentum. Act now: Short-term bears target XPEV20260109P19; long-term bulls await a post-Q4 catalyst.