Xpeng Shares Rally 3.38% Amid Bullish Patterns Face Overbought RSI and Key Resistance at $22.49

Candlestick Theory

Xpeng’s (XPEV) recent price action shows a 3.38% gain, closing at $21.73 on October 13, 2025. Key support levels are forming near $20.80 (tested on October 10) and $21.25 (October 13 low), while resistance appears at $22.49 (October 10 high) and $24.27 (October 8 peak). A bullish engulfing pattern emerged on October 6–7, followed by a failed breakout above $24.27, suggesting $22.49–23.54 as a consolidation range. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (~$22.70) aligns with recent resistance, while the 38.2% level (~$21.80) may act as near-term support.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (~$22.50) and 100-day MA (~$22.20) currently trend above the 200-day MA (~$21.70), indicating a mild bullish bias in the short-to-medium term. However, the price remains below the 200-day MA, signaling a bearish long-term trend. A crossover of the 50-day above the 100-day would strengthen the case for continuation of the recent rally, while a breakdown below the 200-day MA could confirm a deeper correction.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows a recent expansion above zero, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on October 7–8, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, the KDJ (Stochastic RSI) indicator is nearing overbought territory (K=75, D=65), indicating potential exhaustion in the upward move. A bearish divergence between price and KDJ (e.g., higher highs in price but lower highs in KDJ) could signal a near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased, with the bands widening after a period of contraction in late September. The price is currently trading near the upper band, reinforcing overbought conditions. A break below the lower band (~$20.40) would validate a deeper pullback, while a sustained move above the upper band could target $24.27.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged on the recent 3.38% rally, exceeding 6 million shares, which supports the legitimacy of the price increase. However, volume has declined on subsequent consolidation days, suggesting weakening buying pressure. A breakout above $22.49 with a surge in volume would add credibility to the bullish case, while a breakdown without significant volume may signal a false signal.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI has reached 70, entering overbought territory. While this often precedes a correction, XPEV’s RSI has historically remained above 60 during bullish phases, indicating a strong trend. A drop below 60 would signal a potential pullback, while a sustained move above 70 could prolong the uptrend.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the April–May 2025 low-to-high move (e.g., 23.6% at $22.70, 38.2% at $21.80, 61.8% at $20.50) align with recent price action. The current price near $21.73 is testing the 38.2% level, which may act as a pivot point. A break above $22.70 could target the 23.6% level, while a breakdown below $20.50 would confirm a bearish scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy—buying XPEV when RSI exceeds 70 and selling when it drops below 70—performs poorly over 2022–2025, generating a 10.28% return versus the benchmark’s 38.50%. The RSI overbought signal alone proves unreliable, as the stock frequently remains overbought during strong trends. Combining RSI with moving average crossovers (e.g., 50-day above 200-day) or volume confirmation could improve results. Additionally, incorporating Fibonacci retracement levels as dynamic support/resistance may enhance timing.