XOM Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Dec 5–12, 2025

• XOM trades at $115.16, down 1.26% from $116.63, but long-term technicals remain bullish
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $118 and $121 ahead of Friday’s expiry
• Analysts raised price targets to $128.72–$156, citing Exxon’s operational strength and Iraq expansion talks

Here’s the thing: XOM’s price dip today masks a stronger story. The options market is pricing in a clear bias for upside, with call open interest (OI) outpacing puts by a 1.48:1 ratio. Combine that with bullish technicals and strategic news, and this feels like a setup worth dissecting.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls

Let’s start with the options data. This Friday’s expiring calls show heavy concentration at $118 (OI: 4,944) and $121 (OI: 4,369), while puts max out at $115 (OI: 3,209). That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence. The put/call ratio of 0.675 means traders are betting on a rebound, not a crash. Even next Friday’s chain leans bullish, with $126 calls (OI: 1,509) as the top bet. The lack of block trades? A clean slate for retail and institutional players to act without interference.

But here’s the catch: If the stock fails to hold above $114.82 (30D support), those bullish bets could unravel. The RSI at 44.37 suggests oversold territory, but the MACD histogram (-0.355) warns momentum is waning for now. This is a tug-of-war between short-term profit-taking and long-term conviction.

News Flow Fuels the Bull Case

Exxon’s bid for Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 stake isn’t just headline material—it’s a strategic move to boost production in a key market. Iraq’s preference for Exxon adds credibility to the narrative, and with the Treasury’s sanctions window closing Dec 13, urgency is building. Analysts aren’t just cheering louder; they’re raising price targets to $144–$156, reflecting faith in XOM’s cost discipline and refining upgrades.

Yet, the bear case isn’t dead. Regulatory risks (EU sustainability rules) and operational hiccups (like the Scottish plant closure) could delay momentum. But here’s the kicker: The options market already prices in a $121+ target by Dec 12. If the news holds, that’s a 6.5% move from current levels.

Actionable Trade Setups

For options players, the most compelling plays are:

• XOM20251205C118: This Friday’s $118 call. If XOM breaks above $116.63 (intraday high), this strike could catch a short-term pop. Risk: Expiry in 3 days means time decay is aggressive.
• XOM20251212C126: Next Friday’s $126 call. A longer runway for the Iraq deal to materialize. Needs a 10% move to $127+ to justify the premium.
• Bull Call Spread: Buy XOM20251205C118 and sell XOM20251205C121. Caps risk while profiting from a moderate rebound.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $114.82 (30D support). If XOM holds here, it could retest the $116.63 level. A break above $116.63 would validate the short-term bullish trend.
• Target zone: $118–$121. Aligns with heavy call OI and analyst price targets. Exit at $118 if the Iraq news catalyzes a breakout.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 10 days are critical. A successful Lukoil bid would push XOM toward $125+; a regulatory snafu could drag it below $112.81 (lower Bollinger Band). But the options data and technicals lean decisively higher. This isn’t a high-risk gamble—it’s a calculated bet on Exxon’s ability to turn headlines into share price gains. Stay nimble, but don’t ignore the signals.