XOM Options Signal Bullish Breakout: Calls at $123–$126 Dominate as Puts at $111–$120 Hedge Volatility

• XOM trades at $122.04, up 1.4% with volume surging to 6 million shares.
• Call open interest spikes at $123–$126 strikes, while puts cluster at $111–$120.
• Technicals show bullish momentum: price above all major moving averages, MACD above signal line.

The options market is whispering a breakout story. With calls outpacing puts 55:39 in open interest and price action piercing key resistance, XOM is setting up for a directional move—up or down. Let’s break down what the data says about where the action might be.Bullish Pressure vs. Bearish Hedging: The OTM Options Battle

The options chain tells a tale of two camps. Call open interest peaks at $123, $124, and $126 strikes for this Friday’s expiration, with 4,831 contracts at $123 alone. That’s not just noise—it’s a bet that XOM will clear $123 and test the $126 level before the weekend. Meanwhile, puts at $111–$120 (5,005 contracts at $111) suggest institutional players are hedging against a sharp drop. The put/call ratio of 0.708 (calls dominate) leans bullish, but don’t ignore the puts: a breakdown below $118 could trigger panic selling.

No block trades are reported today, which is interesting. Usually, big money moves show up here. But the absence of block trades might mean the market is already pricing in the news—like Exxon’s recent breakout above $120 or the Q4 earnings preview. Either way, the options data is clear: bulls are stacking up near-term calls, and bears are bracing for a fall.

News Flow: Earnings, Dividends, and ETF Rebalances

Exxon’s Q4 earnings preview is a mixed bag. While adjusted EPS is expected to dip slightly, the “Moderate Buy” analyst rating and $131.58 price target keep the long-term story intact. The recent breakout above $120—breaking through a multi-year consolidation range—is the real catalyst here. Institutional buyers like Norges Bank and Cerity Partners are piling in, and the dividend hike to $4.12 annualized (3.4% yield) makes XOM a magnet for income-focused investors.

But here’s the twist: the ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF just dropped XOM in favor of ConocoPhillips and EOG. That’s not a death knell—it’s a sign the fund prioritizes current yields over growth. For XOM, this could mean short-term selling pressure, but also a buying opportunity if the stock dips toward $118 support.

Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels to Watch

For options traders, the XOM20260109C123 and XOM20260109C124 strikes are prime targets. If XOM holds above $118 (the 30D support level), these calls could run if the stock closes above $123 by Friday. For next Friday’s chain, the XOM20260116C126 strike (2,205 OI) offers a longer runway for a $126+ move.

On the bearish side, the XOM20260109P118 and XOM20260109P120 strikes (1,544 and 1,376 OI) are key. A breakdown below $118 would validate the puts and signal a potential retest of the 200D MA at $112.14.

Stock traders should consider entry near $118 if support holds. A close above $123 would validate the breakout, with $126 as the next target. A stop-loss below $112 would protect against a deeper pullback.

Bullish Trends Ahead: XOM’s Path to $130+

The pieces are aligning for a bullish narrative. Strong technicals, a call-heavy options chain, and institutional buying all point to a stock primed to break out. But don’t ignore the puts—they’re a reminder that volatility is still a risk. If XOM can hold $118 and clear $123 by Friday, the $130+ price targets might not feel so far-fetched. For now, the market is betting on a story of resilience—and that’s a story worth watching closely.