La señal de opciones XOM revela una tendencia alcista: los principales strikes a $120 de compra y $114 de venta resaltan el potencial de incremento en medio de catalizadores estratégicos

• Current Price Action: XOM trades at $119.22, down 0.17% from its 52-week high of $120.05. Volume sits at 5.8 million shares, slightly above its 30-day average.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest (542,806) outpaces puts (371,899), with a put/call ratio of 0.685. Heavy call OI at $120–$125 strikes suggests bullish positioning.
• Catalysts in Focus: Russia extends Exxon’s Sakhalin-1 stake sale deadline to 2027, while updated 2030 earnings projections and a $4.12 annualized dividend boost investor confidence.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is painting a clear picture: bulls are in control. For this Friday’s expiration (Dec 26), the $120 call (XOM20251226C120) leads with 5,469 open contracts, followed by the $122 call (2,739 OI). These strikes act as a "crowd-sourced price target"—traders are pricing in a potential breakout above $120, especially with the 30-day moving average (117.39) providing strong support.

On the put side, the $114 put (XOM20251226P114) has 1,559 open contracts, signaling a psychological floor. But here’s the kicker: next Friday’s options show even more bearish positioning, with the $111 put (XOM20260102P111) at 4,989 OI. That’s a 30% drop from current levels—traders are hedging against a rare downside scenario, not betting on it.

News Flow: Strategic Moves Align With Bullish Setup

The Russia deadline extension buys Exxon time to navigate its Sakhalin-1 exit, reducing near-term impairment risks. Meanwhile, the updated 2030 plan—boosting earnings and cash flow projections by $5B each—reinforces confidence in management’s execution. Don’t overlook the dividend hike either: a 3.5% yield is a magnet for income-focused investors, especially in a rising rate environment.

Institutional buying adds fuel. Exchange Traded Concepts’ 22.3% stake increase in Q3 shows big money sees value here. Combine that with a "Moderate Buy" analyst consensus and a $129.45 average price target, and you’ve got a recipe for sustained momentum.

Actionable Trade Ideas for XOMFor Options Traders:

• Short-Term Play: Buy the XOM20251226C120 call if XOM breaks above $120.26 (upper Bollinger Band). Target: $123 (RSI suggests overbought conditions at 54.84, but bullish momentum persists).
• Longer-Term Play: The XOM20260102C121 call (2,259 OI) offers leverage if the stock holds above its 200-day MA ($111.42).
• Bearish Hedge: A put spread at XOM20260102P114 (4,989 OI) and XOM20260102P118 (1,007 OI) could profit if the stock dips to test the $115.88 support level.

For Stock Investors:

• Entry Near $115.88–115.99 (30-day support zone). If XOM holds here, target $120.26 (Bollinger Band) or the $121.00 resistance level.
• Stop-Loss Consideration: Below $113.88 (lower Bollinger Band) would invalidate the bullish case, triggering a reevaluation.

Volatility on the Horizon

The options data and fundamentals align: XOM is primed for a breakout. With calls dominating the chain and institutional buying reinforcing the thesis, the path of least resistance is higher. That said, keep an eye on the $114 level—it’s the last line of defense. If it holds, the stock could retest its 52-week high by year-end. For now, the message is clear: bulls are in the driver’s seat, and the road ahead looks promising.