XOM Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Jan 16 Expiry

• XOM trades at $123.15, down 1.18% from $124.61, but technicals show short-term bullish momentum.
• Call open interest dominates, with 625K total calls vs. 409K puts (put/call ratio: 0.65 for open interest).
• Trump’s Venezuela pressure and $1.2B buyback program create mixed sentiment but strong options positioning.

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and bullish options flow. Here’s how to navigate it.Bullish Imbalance in OTM Options and Quiet Whale Activity

The options market is leaning hard into a rally. For this Friday’s expiry (Jan 16), the top call strike at $125 has 49,119 open contracts—nearly triple the next strike at $130. This suggests traders are pricing in a potential rebound above $124.50 (intraday high). Meanwhile, puts are clustered at $105–$110, with the $105 strike holding 29,788 open contracts. The imbalance? Calls outweigh puts by a 2.1:1 ratio at these strikes.

But here’s the catch: the stock is already below its 200-day moving average ($111.87) and Bollinger Bands’ middle band ($119.71). If XOM fails to hold above $119.38 (30D support), the puts at $105 could gain urgency. No major block trades today, so institutional moves aren’t skewing the data—this is retail and institutional retail-driven positioning.

Venezuela Drama and Dividend Hikes: Fuel for the Fire

Trump’s veiled threats to sideline Exxon from Venezuela’s oil market are a double-edged sword. On one hand, the administration’s $100B investment push could force XOM’s hand if legal frameworks improve. On the other, CEO Darren Woods’ “uninvestable” stance keeps the door ajar for volatility. Meanwhile, the $4.12 annualized dividend (3.3% yield) and $1.2B buyback program are attracting income-focused investors.

Analysts are split: Piper Sandler’s $142 target vs. Zacks’ “strong sell.” But the options data tells a clearer story—traders are pricing in a near-term rebound, not a collapse. The $125 call strike aligns with XOM’s 52-week high of $125.93, suggesting a breakout attempt is in play.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls for the Short-Term, Puts for the Cautious

For this Friday (Jan 16), consider XOM20260116C125 (strike: $125). If XOM closes above $124.50, this call could see a 10–15% move. Entry: $1.20–$1.40 per contract. Target: $1.80 if the stock breaks $125.50.

For next Friday (Jan 23), XOM20260123C130 (strike: $130) is a longer play. Buy if XOM holds above $122.56 (intraday low). Entry: $0.90–$1.10. Target: $1.50 if the stock tests the upper Bollinger Band ($125.11).

Bearish hedge: Buy a put spread with XOM20260116P110 (strike: $110) and sell XOM20260116P105 (strike: $105). Cost: ~$0.50–$0.70. Protects against a drop below $119.38.

Volatility on the Horizon: Eyes on the 200D Line

The 200-day moving average at $111.87 is a critical level. If XOM dips below $112.14 (200D support zone), the puts at $105–$110 could trigger a 5–7% move. But the bulls have a lifeline: the 30D support at $119.38. A rebound here would validate the call-heavy positioning.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade. The options data and technicals lean bullish, but Venezuela’s legal limbo and oil price swings mean risks linger. Play it smart—use the puts as insurance and target the $125–$130 range for upside.

Final note: Always adjust stop-loss levels as the stock approaches key support/resistance. The market’s mood can shift faster than a Trump tweet.