XOM Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $119–$117 Dominate as AI and Geopolitical Moves Fuel Long-Term Optimism

• XOM trades at $115.50, down 0.8% on the session, but technicals and options data hint at a short-term rebound.
• Options market shows 60% more call open interest than puts, with heavy concentration at $119 and $117 strikes.
• Exxon’s AI-driven drilling and India’s shift to U.S. oil could supercharge demand, but Mozambique delays remain a wildcard.

Here’s the thing: XOM’s price action and options positioning are painting a clear picture. The stock is testing key support levels while options traders are betting big on a rebound. Let’s break down what this means for your strategy.

Bullish Tailwinds in the Options Market

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For Friday’s expiration, calls at $119 (OI: 8,133) and $117 (OI: 5,071) dominate, while puts at $114 (OI: 1,709) and $112 (OI: 1,553) lag far behind. This 3.5x imbalance in open interest between calls and puts suggests institutional money is hedging for a breakout above $117. Think of it like a crowd gathering at the edge of a cliff—everyone’s watching for the price to leap.

But don’t ignore the risks. If XOM closes below $113.93 (30D support), the $114 put strike could see a surge in activity. The good news? Bollinger Bands show the stock is trading near the upper band ($116.99), which often precedes a pullback. Your move? Watch the $115.27 intraday low as a critical floor.

News That Could Shift the Script

Exxon’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The AI-powered digital twins and India’s pivot to U.S. oil are major tailwinds. These moves could boost margins and market share in Asia, where demand is surging. But the Mozambique LNG delay is a speed bump—redirecting capital to more stable projects might slow growth in the short term.

Here’s the kicker: The India deal isn’t just about oil. It’s about geopolitical leverage. If IOC locks in long-term contracts, XOM could see steady cash flow for years. Meanwhile, the Gabon MoU signals a strategic push into Africa, where underexplored reserves could become a new revenue stream. Investors are likely factoring this into the $119 call premium.

Actionable Trades for XOMFor Options Traders:

• Buy the $117 call (Friday expiry) if XOM holds above $115.27. The $117 strike is a sweet spot—high enough to profit from a rebound but not so far out that it’s overpriced. If the stock gaps up, this call could double in value.
• Sell the $119 call (Friday expiry) as a covered call if you’re holding XOM. With the stock near $115.50, this strike offers a 10%+ return if the price stays below $119 by Friday.
• Buy the $114 put (next Friday expiry) as insurance. If the stock dips below $113.93, this put could cap losses while you reassess the trade.

For Stock Traders:

• Enter a long position near $114 if the 30D support holds. Set a stop-loss at $112.50 (just below the 200D support) and target $119 as a profit zone. The RSI at 62.46 suggests the stock isn’t overbought yet, giving you room to ride the trend.
• Short-term scalpers could go for a $115.50–$116.48 range trade. The MACD histogram (0.36) and 30D MA ($113.59) both point to a potential bounce off the lower Bollinger Band ($109.87) before a push higher.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks are critical. XOM’s Q3 earnings (due soon) could either validate the bullish case or expose cracks in the strategy. If the Mozambique delay is more severe than expected, watch for a selloff. But if the India deal and AI initiatives gain traction, the $119 call premium might just be the beginning. Either way, the options market is already pricing in a 5–7% move by Friday—so the question isn’t whether XOM will move, but which direction you’re ready for.

Bottom line: This isn’t a binary bet. It’s a calculated play on a company balancing innovation with geopolitical chess. Keep an eye on the $114–$119 corridor, and don’t let a single news headline blind you to the bigger picture. The market’s telling you to stay nimble—and that’s where the real money is.