XOM Options Signal $120 Bullish Bias: How to Position for Earnings and Expansion Catalysts

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) surges 2.23% to $118.17, breaking above 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Options data reveals a 0.69 put/call open interest imbalance, with heavy call OI at $119–$120 and defensive put OI at $108–$109.
• Strategic acquisitions in synthetic graphite and Guyana’s 11B-barrel potential align with technical bullishness.

The confluence of XOM’s 2.23% intraday rally, a 0.69 put/call open interest imbalance, and a $120 call-heavy options chain signals a high-probability upside breakout. With the stock trading at $118.17—above its 30D ($111.71) and 200D ($109.40) averages—and RSI at 73.35 (overbought), the technical and options data suggest a $120 price target is in play. Traders should focus on leveraged call strategies and tight stop-loss levels to capitalize on this setup.

Bullish Imbalance in OTM Options and Strategic Catalysts

The options chain for XOM reveals a stark bullish bias. For Friday expiration, the top OTM call options are concentrated at $119 (OI: 2,415) and $120 (OI: 1,417), while the largest put OI is at $108 (OI: 4,664). This distribution indicates institutional positioning for a $120+ move, with limited downside protection beyond $108. The next Friday chain amplifies this trend, with $120 calls (OI: 6,808) dominating and $109 puts (OI: 5,558) acting as a floor. The 0.69 put/call ratio (calls: 609,673; puts: 422,283) further underscores aggressive bullish positioning.

The absence of block trades suggests no major institutional hedging or short-term volatility from large orders. However, the $120 call-heavy profile implies a potential short squeeze or earnings-driven rally. If XOM closes above $120 by Friday, the $120 call buyers could trigger a cascading bullish effect. Conversely, a drop below $109 would validate the put-heavy floor, but the current technicals (MACD: 1.10, RSI: 73.35) favor a continuation of the rally.

News Flow Reinforces Bullish Narrative

Exxon’s recent strategic moves align with the options-driven optimism. The acquisition of Superior Graphite’s synthetic graphite assets and the $30B Qatar LNG investment position XOM to capitalize on EV demand and energy transition tailwinds. The Yellowtail project’s early production in Guyana (adding 900,000 barrels/day) and the Baytown complex reconfiguration for premium base stocks further enhance margins. Analysts at UBS raised the price target to $143, citing these catalysts, which dovetails with the $120+ options positioning.

Investor perception is also shifting. Despite climate-related headlines, XOM’s stock has risen amid rising oil prices and strategic acquisitions. The market appears to value its long-term growth in LNG and carbon capture, even as short-term environmental scrutiny persists. This sentiment is reflected in the options data, where bullish bets outweigh defensive puts.

Actionable Trading OpportunitiesOptions Play: Buy the $120 call (next Friday expiration) with OI of 6,808. This strike is the most liquid and aligns with the 30D/200D convergence at $111.71–$109.40. A $118.17 entry offers ~8.3% upside to $120, with a breakeven at $120.00. For a risk-reversal, pair this with the $109 put (next Friday) to hedge below $109.40 (lower Bollinger Band).Stock Play: Enter near $115.92 (intraday low) if support holds, with a target at $120 (call-heavy strike) and a stop-loss at $112.13 (30D support). Alternatively, scale into positions as XOM tests the 200D MA at $109.40, using the $109 put as a floor. The RSI’s overbought level (73.35) suggests a pullback is possible, but the MACD histogram (0.159) and bullish Kline pattern favor continuation.Volatility on the Horizon

The alignment of technicals, options positioning, and strategic news creates a high-conviction setup for XOM. With the stock poised to test $120 and the options market pricing in a bullish bias, traders should prioritize leveraged call strategies and tight risk management. The key risks include a drop below $109.40 (lower Bollinger Band) or a slowdown in oil prices, but the company’s Guyana expansion and synthetic graphite bets provide long-term tailwinds. For those seeking structured trades, the $120 call and $109 put combination offers a balanced approach to capitalize on the $118.17 breakout while hedging downside risks.