XOM Options Signal $120 Bullish Bias: Here's How to Play the 2030 Growth Play

• XOM trades at $118.79, down 0.63% but clinging to key technical support levels
• Options data shows 43,369 open calls at $120 (next Friday expiry) vs just 10,634 puts at $110
• Analysts raised price targets to $135-$132 as XOM boosts 2030 earnings forecasts by $5B

The options market is whispering a clear message: XOM is primed for a breakout. With the stock hovering near its 52-week high and technical indicators lining up, today's data paints a compelling picture of institutional confidence in Exxon's long-term story. Let's unpack why $120 is the magic number right now.

The $120 Call Wall: A Bullish Bet with Institutional Backing

Options traders are stacking up calls at the $120 strike like building blocks for a fortress. With 43,369 open contracts expiring Dec 19—nearly 10x the next highest call—this strike has become a de facto price target. The put/call ratio of 0.695 (favoring calls) reinforces this bias, showing bears are on the defensive.

This isn't just retail frenzy either. The sheer volume at $120 suggests institutional players are hedging long-term positions or positioning for a short-term pop. The danger? If XOM fails to break above $119.85 (today's intraday high), this call wall could turn into a gravity well that drags the stock down. But given the $115.90 support level and bullish MACD crossover, the risk-reward tilts toward a test of $122.

2030 Growth Plan: Why Analysts Are Raising the Bar

Exxon's recent announcements aren't just numbers—they're a blueprint for dominance. By allocating $20B to low-carbon projects while boosting Permian production to 2.3M Boe/D by 2030, XOM is positioning itself as both an energy giant and a climate solution.

The market is already pricing in this duality. The 3.07% post-announcement rally and TD Cowen's $135 target show investors are buying the narrative. What's interesting? The options data mirrors this optimism. The $125 call (21,729 OI) and $130 call (13,585 OI) suggest some players expect the Permian-driven growth to accelerate beyond current forecasts.

3 Ways to Play the XOM Breakout

1. Leveraged Call Play: Buy XOM20251219C120 at $1.85 (current premium). Target $125 for 27% gain if XOM breaks above $119.85. Stop-loss at $117.50 to protect against a breakdown.
2. Bull Call Spread: Buy XOM20251219C120 ($1.85) + sell XOM20251219C125 ($0.95). Net cost $0.90, max gain at $125. Ideal if you expect a 3-4% move by Friday.
3. Stock Breakout Strategy: Enter long at $119.20 (just below today's open) with a stop at $117.50. First target $122 (Bollinger Upper Band), then $125 if the $120 call wall holds.

Volatility on the Horizon: The 2030 Clock is Ticking

With Exxon's 2030 plan now in motion, the next six months will test whether this is a sustainable growth story or a temporary rally. The options market is pricing in a $120+ near-term target, but the real prize lies in the long game. If XOM can maintain its 17% ROCE and hit those Permian production numbers, this could be the start of a multi-year bull run.

For now, keep an eye on the $115.90 support level. A break below that would invalidate the bullish case, but as long as XOM stays above $117.20 (middle Bollinger Band), the technicals remain in favor. The message from options traders? This stock isn't done climbing.